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北化股份(002246):防务需求逐步回暖,商业航天前景广阔

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6][9][12]. Core Views - The demand for nitrocellulose is increasing while supply is contracting, positioning the company as a leading global player in this market, which is expected to benefit significantly from the growing ammunition demand [7][8]. - The company's financial performance is showing signs of recovery, with a projected revenue increase of 34% in 2025, reaching 2.61 billion yuan, and a substantial profit growth forecast of 412% [6][9]. - The long-term prospects for military nitrocellulose exports and its application in environmentally friendly fireworks are promising, indicating potential new market opportunities [8][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 13.20 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 7.2 billion yuan [4]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue in 2024, with a total revenue of 1.947 billion yuan, down 9.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of -28.31 million yuan, a decrease of 150.99% [6][12]. - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 2.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 140 million yuan [6][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.61 billion yuan, 3.21 billion yuan, and 3.87 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 137 million yuan, 300 million yuan, and 428 million yuan [12][13]. - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in its profit margins, with EBITDA projected to rise from 39.38 million yuan in 2024 to 533.19 million yuan by 2027 [12][13].