豆粕：6月供需报告平淡，关注月底面积报告

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The June USDA supply and demand report made minor adjustments to the global soybean balance sheet and did not adjust the US soybean balance sheet, having little impact. The global soybean supply - demand remains tight as the inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 2025/26 global soybean is expected to decline [1][34]. - The US soybean spring planting progress in 2025 was fast at first and then slow, and the market mainly traded the bearish factors while ignoring the marginal bullish factors and weather flaws [27][34]. - Pay close attention to the USDA planting area intention report at the end of June, as it is closer to the actual situation and has differences from market expectations in previous years [2][31]. - The domestic soybean meal futures price rebounded after reaching a low in May, and the May low may become a phased low [2][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. June USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Report - Global Soybean Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 period, the global soybean output remained unchanged at 426.82 million tons compared to the May estimate; consumption increased by 100,000 tons to 424.15 million tons; exports remained unchanged at 188.43 million tons; imports increased by 40,000 tons to 186.86 million tons; and the ending inventory increased by 970,000 tons to 125.3 million tons due to the increase in the beginning inventory. The global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio in 2025/26 is about 20.45%, indicating a tightening supply - demand situation [4][5][8]. - US Soybean Balance Sheet: There were no adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet for both the 2024/25 and 2025/26 periods in terms of output, consumption, exports, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [4]. - Other Major Countries: The soybean output of Brazil, Argentina, and China in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 periods was not adjusted. China's soybean consumption in 2024/25 decreased by 1 million tons due to the reduction in crushing volume [4][5]. - Global Soybean Meal: In the 2025/26 period, the global soybean meal output increased by 100,000 tons to 287.73 million tons, consumption increased by 150,000 tons to 283.52 million tons, exports increased by 300,000 tons to 81.23 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 18.37 million tons [23]. 2. US Soybean Spring Planting - The US soybean planting progress in 2025 was fast at first and then slow. As of the week of June 9, the planting progress was 90%, faster than the same period last year and the five - year average. The market mainly traded the bearish impact of the fast - paced planting and ignored the marginal bullish factors of the slowdown [27]. - The temperature in the US soybean growing areas was low in mid - to - late May, and the early - stage good - quality rate was average. The market did not trade the weather flaws but mainly focused on the weather forecast. According to the June 12 weather forecast, the weather in some major growing areas in mid - to - late June was mixed, with some areas having more precipitation and others less [27]. 3. Focus on the USDA Planting Area Intention Report at the End of June - As of the week of June 9, the US soybean planting was nearly completed, and the USDA planting area intention report at the end of June is closer to the actual situation. In previous years, there were differences between the report and market expectations, and it is difficult to accurately predict, so it is necessary to wait for the USDA's guidance [31]. 4. Summary - The June USDA supply and demand report had little impact. The market mainly traded the bearish factors of US soybean planting, and the weather flaws were not considered. Pay attention to the USDA planting area intention report at the end of June [34]. - The domestic soybean meal futures price rebounded after reaching a low in May, and the probability of the May low becoming a phased low increased if there are no additional major bearish factors [35].