半导体行业月报：美国半导体出口管制再升级，存储器价格持续回升-20250613

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is currently in an upward cycle, driven significantly by AI as a key growth engine [4][28] - Global semiconductor sales continued to grow year-on-year, with a 22.7% increase in April 2025, marking 18 consecutive months of growth [22][23] - The prices of DRAM and NAND Flash are expected to rise due to strong demand from AI-driven enterprise SSDs [5][29] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In May 2025, the domestic semiconductor industry saw a decline of 5.65%, significantly underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.85% [4][10] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 12.48% in May 2025, outperforming the Nasdaq 100, which rose by 9.04% [12][18] 2. Sales Growth - April 2025 global semiconductor sales reached approximately $57 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 22.7% and a month-on-month increase of 2.5% [22][23] - China's semiconductor sales in April 2025 were $16.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.4% [23] 3. Price Trends - The DRAM price index rose by approximately 33% and the NAND Flash index increased by about 11% from March to May 2025 [3][4] - TrendForce forecasts that NAND Flash prices will continue to rise in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 due to strong demand [5][29] 4. Industry Dynamics - The demand for consumer electronics is gradually recovering, with global smartphone shipments in Q1 2025 showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2% [4][22] - AI mobile penetration is expected to rise rapidly, reaching 34% in 2025, while AI PC penetration is projected to hit 35% [4][22] 5. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as EDA software, AI computing chips, CPUs, FPGAs, analog chips, semiconductor equipment, and wafer manufacturing due to the acceleration of domestic semiconductor industry self-sufficiency [4][5]