欧盟碳市场行情简报（2025年第100期）-20250613

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 100, 2025) [1] Report Date - June 13, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, with the price trends of the primary and secondary markets of EUA diverging. The short - term outlook is bearish, and the medium - term outlook is volatile, with a range of €67 - 75 [2] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - Primary Market: The auction price is 72.71 euros/ton (-1.07%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.31 [2] - Secondary Market: The EUA futures settlement price is 75.39 euros/ton (1.39%), and the trading volume is 36,700 lots (0.64) [2] Strategy - Short - term: Bearish; Medium - term: Volatile, range €67 - 75 [2] Core Logic - Likely to Rise: Israel's air strike on Iran makes the US - Iran peace talks scheduled for the weekend likely to be hopeless, and crude oil continues to rise significantly. Japan expands LNG procurement from the US to diversify procurement risks in the Middle East and the Asia - Pacific [2][3] - Likely to Fall: The EU accelerates the laying of high - voltage cables to support the integration of renewable energy into the grid [4] Risks - The EU resumes Russian gas supply; The EU increases auctions to raise funds; The emission cap is weakened [4] Chart Information - Chart 1: Shows EUA auction volume, CBAM certificate price, EUA auction price, auction revenue, and bid coverage ratio on June 11 - 12, 2025 [4] - Chart 2: Seasonal chart of EUA auction price trend - Chart 3: Seasonal chart of EUA auction bid coverage ratio - Chart 4: Shows EUA futures and spot market information on June 11 - 12, 2025, including futures settlement price, volume, open interest, spot settlement price, volume, container shipping carbon cost, etc. [4] - Chart 5: EUA futures and spot prices and basis - Chart 6: Seasonal chart of December contract open interest