中银中外运仓储物流REIT（508090）申购价值分析

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Zhongyin Sino - Foreign Transport Warehousing and Logistics REIT (508090.SH) has significant location advantages, with some projects having stable supply - demand relationships. It shows potential in terms of cash distribution rate and valuation, but also faces risks such as major cash - flow provider risks, concentrated lease expiration risks, and trade - related risks [4]. - The project has a relatively high predicted cash distribution rate in 2025, with a P/NAV lower than the comparable REITs average, and a capitalization rate higher than the comparable average [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Basic Issuance Elements - The Zhongyin Sino - Foreign Transport Warehousing and Logistics Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (Sino - Foreign Transport REIT) was accepted by the exchange on January 6, 2025, and approved by the CSRC on May 30, 2025. The total number of shares to be raised is 400 million, with a planned fundraising of 1.128 billion yuan. The inquiry date is June 16, 2025, and the inquiry range is 2.341 - 3.301 yuan per share [8][10]. 3.2 Introduction to Underlying Basic Assets 3.2.1 Project Location Advantage and Slowing New Supply - The infrastructure projects are located in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Tianjin, and Chengdu. The Wuxi, Ruida Kunshan, and Kunshan Qiandeng projects are in Jiangsu, with relatively small leasable areas. The Wuxi project is in the Wuxi High - tech Comprehensive Bonded Zone, with good transportation. The Ruida Kunshan project has an excellent location for meeting the spill - over demand from Shanghai and Suzhou. The Kunshan Qiandeng project is close to the Shanghai - Suzhou expressway. The Jinhua project has the largest leasable area, and Jinhua is a major economic city with a mature transportation network. The Tianjin project can meet the spill - over demand from Beijing, and the Chengdu project is near the airport with high demand for high - standard warehouses [11][12][13]. - In the next three years, the Ruida Kunshan, Jinhua, and Kunshan Qiandeng projects will have only one new project supply, with stable supply - demand. The Wuxi, Tianjin, and Chengdu projects will have relatively more new supplies [16]. 3.2.2 Improvement of the Original Equity Holder's Profitability from 2022 - 2024 - The original equity holder, China National Foreign Trade Transportation Corporation, is a leading logistics company with extensive domestic and overseas networks. From 2022 - 2024, its revenue was 108.817 billion, 101.705 billion, and 105.621 billion yuan respectively, and its net profit was 4.241 billion, 4.453 billion, and 4.180 billion yuan respectively. The decline was due to weak market demand, intensified competition, and stricter cost control by customers. In 2023, the profit increased due to cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement measures [20][23]. 3.3 Analysis of the Project Company's Operational Performance 3.3.1 Revenue Increase and EBITDA Decline in the Past Three Years, with Double - Decline in the Chengdu Project in 2024 - From 2022 - 2024, the total operating revenue of the infrastructure projects was 95.15 million, 104.08 million, and 107.04 million yuan respectively, showing a steady increase, while the EBITDA was 69.98 million, 71.32 million, and 61.89 million yuan respectively, showing an overall decline. In 2024, the Tianjin project had the largest revenue share, and the Wuxi, Kunshan Qiandeng, and Tianjin projects were the main profit sources. Only the Ruida Kunshan and Jinhua projects had a steady increase in revenue and net profit from 2022 - 2024 [28]. 3.3.2 Improvement of Gross Margin and NOI Margin, but Lower than Comparable Averages - From 2022 - 2024, the project company's overall gross margin was 47.23%, 48.02%, and 50.13% respectively, increasing but still lower than comparable REITs. The overall operating net return rate was 62.38%, 64.50%, and 64.22% respectively, also lower than comparable REITs [33][37]. 3.3.3 High Occupancy Rate, but Rent Lower than Comparable Averages - From 2022 - 2024, the weighted average occupancy rate was about 95%, and it was higher than comparable REITs in 2023 and 2024. The Wuxi, Ruida Kunshan, and Kunshan Qiandeng projects in the whole - lease mode had an occupancy rate of 100%, the Tianjin project's occupancy rate increased to 100%, and the Jinhua project's occupancy rate was 90%. The Chengdu project in the sub - lease mode had a relatively low and declining occupancy rate [39][44]. - In the whole - lease mode, the rent growth rate was stable at 3% - 4%, but it is expected to decrease by 3.87% - 16.75% after the lease expiration, with the Wuxi and Tianjin projects having a decline of over 16%. In the sub - lease mode, the rent growth rate of the Chengdu project was relatively low [45][48]. - The whole - lease tenants are all related parties, and the top five customers' revenue contribution ratio is 87.04%, higher than comparable REITs. The Chengdu project in the sub - lease mode has 24 tenants from various industries [50]. - 60% of the whole - lease area will expire in 2027, and the sub - lease project's 43% and 68% of warehouse and office rental areas will expire in 2025 [53]. 3.4 Project Valuation Comparison 3.4.1 Predicted Cash Distribution Rate of 5.56% in 2025, Leading Comparable REITs - The predicted distributable amounts in 2025 and 2026 are 27.18 million and 32.58 million yuan respectively. Assuming 100% distribution, the predicted net cash - flow distribution rates in 2025 and 2026 are 5.56% and 5.72% respectively, with the 2025 rate leading comparable REITs [58]. 3.4.2 Discount Rate within the Comparable Range, Asset Valuation Appreciation Rate of 128% - The infrastructure project's discount rate is in the range of 7.25% - 8.00%, within the comparable REITs' range. As of the end of 2024, the asset valuation appreciation rate is 127.64%, lower than the comparable average. The Wuxi and Ruida Kunshan projects have higher appreciation rates, while the Tianjin and Chengdu projects are discounted [60][63]. 3.4.3 Preliminary Calculation of P/NAV Lower than the Comparable REITs Average - The NAV of this fund is 2.81 yuan. Calculated based on the preliminary inquiry range, the P/NAV is 0.83 - 1.17 times, lower than the comparable REITs average of 1.21 times. The P/FFO is 16.49 - 23.25 times, lower than the comparable average of 25.67 times. The initial fundraising scale's appreciation rate compared to the valuation is in the range of - 14.64% - 20.36%, with the upper limit leading comparable REITs [65]. 3.4.4 Total Capitalization Rate of 6.83% in 2025 - The total capitalization rate of the infrastructure projects in 2025 is 6.83%, higher than the comparable REITs average of 6.13% [69].