宏观策略周报：5月核心CPI同比涨幅扩大，出口同比增幅收窄-20250613

Investment Highlights - The report indicates a slight decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, while the core CPI increased by 0.6%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month [11][13] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also showed a month-on-month decline of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, with the latter's decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [11][12] - The report highlights that the decrease in CPI is primarily influenced by a 1.7% drop in energy prices, which accounted for nearly 70% of the total decline [12][13] Trade and Export Analysis - In the first five months of 2025, China's total trade value reached 17.94 trillion yuan, marking a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with exports growing by 7.2% to 10.67 trillion yuan [18][19] - Exports to ASEAN increased by 13.5%, while exports to the US fell by 8.7%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [20][21] - The report notes that private enterprises accounted for 57.1% of total foreign trade, with a 7% increase in their trade value [21][22] Industry Insights - The rare earth industry is highlighted as having significant growth potential, driven by increasing demand in sectors such as photovoltaic systems and electric vehicles [30][31] - China's rare earth reserves are the largest globally, with a 48% share of total reserves, and the country is expected to produce 69% of the world's rare earths in 2024 [31] - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of rare earths in military applications, with an estimated annual consumption of 30,000 to 50,000 tons in the defense sector [30][31] Market Overview - The report presents a mixed performance among major domestic stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showing declines of 0.2% and 0.6% respectively [32][33] - The report also provides a detailed breakdown of sector performance, indicating that the rare earth sector has seen a notable increase of 13.07% [36] - The overall trading volume in the market is analyzed, with significant fluctuations noted in the past week [38]