2025年6月13日利率债观察：促信贷还有“撒手锏”

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the slow credit growth during the local government implicit debt replacement phase, it doesn't mean a decline in credit support for the real economy; instead, it benefits economic growth. The new policy - type financial tool is a trump card for promoting credit, and there's no need to be pessimistic about future credit growth. Credit growth isn't necessarily better the more it is, and an appropriate decline in credit growth is normal during economic restructuring and the increase of direct financing ratio. Considering various factors, a credit growth rate of about 7.5% for state - owned large - scale banks is satisfactory [1][3][4]. Summary by Related Contents Credit Growth in May 2025 - In May 2025, new RMB loans were 62 billion yuan, 34 billion yuan more than in April and 33 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Local government implicit debt replacement is one of the factors affecting May's credit growth [1][9]. Impact of Debt Replacement on Credit - Local government implicit debt replacement uses low - cost, long - term local government bonds to replace high - cost, short - remaining - term debts, which helps relieve the debt chain, benefiting economic growth. During this phase, slow credit growth doesn't mean a decline in credit support for the real economy [1][9]. Weakening of Effective Demand - The weakening of effective demand is mainly due to external shocks such as US tariff policies. Economic data reflects this, like the domestic manufacturing PMI in April and May 2025 being 49.0% and 49.5% respectively, lower than the Q1 average of 49.9%, and the PPI year - on - year growth rates in April and May being - 2.7% and - 3.3% respectively, lower than the Q1 average of - 2.3% [1][9]. Historical Experience of Policy Intervention - Similar external shocks have been experienced in the past. As long as policies respond actively, credit support for the real economy won't weaken and may even strengthen. For example, in 2020 and 2022, affected by the COVID - 19 pandemic, RMB loans increased by 19.6 trillion and 21.3 trillion yuan respectively, 2.8 trillion and 1.4 trillion yuan more than the previous years. New regulatory tools were introduced, like the policy - based and development - oriented financial tools in 2022, which injected 740 billion yuan into real - sector enterprises by the end of October, stimulating more effective credit demand [2][11][13]. New Policy - Type Financial Tool - The Politburo meeting on April 25, 2025, called for the establishment of a new policy - type financial tool. Assuming an average project capital ratio of 20%, every 500 billion yuan of this tool can theoretically leverage 2 trillion yuan of credit funds, making it a trump card for promoting credit [3][13]. Issues with Excessive Credit Growth - Financial institutions' "scale complex" leads to "involution - style competition" in the deposit and loan markets. Excessive credit growth through loan "price wars" sacrifices the sustainability of banks' support for the real economy and the banks' operational stability, and provides a breeding ground for capital idling and arbitrage [3][13]. Appropriate Credit Growth Rate - During economic restructuring and the increase of direct financing ratio, an appropriate decline in credit growth is normal. Considering factors like the GDP growth target of about 5% and CPI growth target of about 2% this year, a credit growth rate of about 7.5% for state - owned large - scale banks is satisfactory [4][14].