瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20250613

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the raw material prices in the natural rubber market increased, driving up the price center. The import rubber market recovered from the oversold situation, and the spot prices of domestic natural rubber also rebounded. However, downstream demand was weak, leading to low trading sentiment [9]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In Yunnan, the supply of rubber latex is increasing due to improved weather, and raw material purchase prices are firm. In Hainan, typhoon weather has temporarily disrupted tapping, tightening the supply of raw materials and slowing down the production of local processing plants [9]. - Last week, the bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased, while the general trade warehouses continued to destock. The arrival of overseas goods decreased, resulting in a continuous decline in the total inventory of Qingdao spot. Tire companies mostly made rigid - demand purchases at lower prices, and the total outbound volume in Qingdao exceeded the inbound volume [9]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies increased this week, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term [9]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,300 - 14,250 in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,600 - 12,200 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The raw material prices in the natural rubber market increased, and the price center of rubber moved up. The import rubber market recovered from oversold, and the spot price of domestic natural rubber also increased. However, downstream demand was poor, and traders faced difficulties in selling [9]. - Market Outlook: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap. In Yunnan, the supply of rubber latex is increasing, and raw material prices are firm. In Hainan, typhoon weather has disrupted tapping. The inventory in Qingdao has changed, with bonded warehouses increasing and general trade warehouses destocking. The arrival of overseas goods has decreased, and tire companies' purchasing sentiment has improved. The capacity utilization rate of tire companies is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,300 - 14,250, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,600 - 12,200 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Movement: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose 1.65% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - gauge rubber rose 1.05% [12]. - Spread: As of June 13, the spread between the September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 835 [25]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of June 13, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 193,070 tons, a decrease of 460 tons from last week; 20 - gauge rubber warehouse receipts were 34,876 tons, an increase of 13,003 tons from last week [29]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Price and Basis: As of June 12, the price of state - owned full - latex was 13,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from last week [34]. - 20 - gauge and Non - standard Basis: As of June 12, the basis of 20 - gauge rubber was 262 yuan/ton, an increase of 89 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from last week [39]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Thailand: As of June 12, the price of field latex in Thailand was 56.75 (+0.75) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 46.55 (+1.8) Thai baht/kg. As of June 13, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 61.8 US dollars/ton, an increase of 60.8 US dollars/ton from last week [42]. - Domestic Producing Areas: As of June 12, the price of rubber latex in Yunnan was 13,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week; the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [45]. 3.3.2 Import - In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 523,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.93% and a year - on - year increase of 41.64%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.2089 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 24.25% [48]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of June 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 605,500 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.67%. The bonded area inventory was 85,600 tons, a decline of 1.5%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 0.54% [51]. 3.3.4 Downstream - Tire Production: As of June 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.00 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 58.70%, a month - on - month increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.95 percentage points [54]. - Tire Exports: In April 2025, China's tire exports were 696,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14% and a year - on - year increase of 6.11%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative tire exports were 2.6455 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.01% [58]. - Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales): In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [61].