Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-13 10:07Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific investment suggestions for different asset classes: - Stocks: Caution and wait - and - see [6] - Bonds: Caution and wait - and - see [6] - Commodities: Buy on dips [6] - Foreign Exchange: Caution and wait - and - see [6] 2. Core Views - A - share major indices had narrow - range fluctuations this week and all recorded declines, mainly affected by domestic price data, trade situation, and overseas geopolitical and tariff news. Treasury bond yields weakened, and futures rose. The commodity market strengthened due to the expected easing of Sino - US trade relations, but the subsequent upward momentum needs to be observed. The US dollar was volatile and weak, while the euro was strong [6]. - Inflation data in the US unexpectedly slowed down, the labor market continued to cool, which strengthened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The US dollar was under pressure, and the euro maintained a strong trend. The Japanese yen was supported by the Bank of Japan's hawkish tone [10]. - In May, China's CPI and PPI showed different trends, and the CPI - PPI gap widened. Although exports were affected by tariffs, exports to ASEAN and the EU offset the decline in exports to the US. The tourism and culture industries were boosted by the summer vacation [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - Stocks: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell 0.25%, and the CSI 300 Index Futures rose 0.07%. A - share major indices had narrow - range fluctuations and declined, with only the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index falling more than 1%. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [6]. - Bonds: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield fell 0.09%, and the main 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.11%. Treasury bond yields weakened, and futures rose. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [6]. - Commodities: The Wind Commodity Index rose 1.17%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 1.58%. The CPI - PPI gap widened, and the trade scale shrank. The commodity market was expected to strengthen, but the upward momentum needs to be observed. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - Foreign Exchange: The euro against the US dollar rose 1.30%, and the euro against the US dollar 2506 contract rose 1.11%. The US dollar was volatile and weak, and the euro was strong. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - Sino - US Economic and Trade Consultation: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, reaching a consensus on implementing the leaders' consensus and consolidating the results of previous talks [14]. - Global Economic News: The Fed's Beige Book showed a pessimistic economic outlook in the US; the ECB cut interest rates; the World Bank lowered the global economic growth forecast; the Japanese Prime Minister said Japan was entering a stage of rising interest rates [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and Overseas Economic Data - China: In May, the CPI annual rate was - 0.1%, the PPI annual rate was - 3.3%, exports increased 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year [17]. - US: In May, the New York Fed's 1 - year inflation expectation was 3.2%, the unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.4%, and the unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.8% [17]. - UK: In May, the unemployment rate was 4.5%, and in April, the three - month GDP monthly rate was 0.7% [17]. - Japan: In April, the trade balance was - 32.8 billion yen [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - China: On June 16, the year - on - year growth rate of May's social consumer goods retail sales and the year - on - year growth rate of May's industrial added value above a designated size will be released; on June 20, the one - year loan prime rate will be announced [81]. - US: On June 17, the May retail sales monthly rate and the May industrial output monthly rate will be released; on June 19, the Fed's interest - rate decision will be announced [81]. - UK: On June 18, the May CPI monthly rate and the May retail price index monthly rate will be released; on June 19, the Bank of England's interest - rate decision will be announced [81]. - Japan: On June 17, the central bank's target interest rate will be announced; on June 20, the May core CPI annual rate will be released [81]. - Eurozone: On June 18, the May CPI annual rate final value will be released; on June 20, the June consumer confidence index preliminary value will be released [81].