加籽旧作库存偏紧，支撑菜系品种走高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, the short - term market focuses on the tight inventory of Canadian rapeseed, and the growth of Canadian rapeseed has entered the "weather - dominated" stage. Palm oil production is in the seasonal increase season, and geopolitical risks boost the oil market. In China, the high inventory of oil mills and the expected easing of China - Canada trade relations bring supply pressure, but the relatively strong price of Canadian rapeseed supports the domestic rapeseed oil price. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [8]. - For rapeseed meal, the USDA monthly report has little impact on the ending inventory of US soybeans. The fast planting progress and good quality of US soybeans restrain the US soybean market, but the Sino - US framework agreement is positive for the domestic meal price. In China, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans increases supply, while the peak season of aquaculture boosts the demand for rapeseed meal. The expected easing of China - Canada trade relations may increase future supply. It is recommended to participate in the short - term and pay attention to Sino - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Participate mainly in the short - term [7] - Market review: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the 09 contract was 9310 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton from the previous week [8] - Market outlook: Focus on the tight inventory of Canadian rapeseed and weather conditions. Palm oil production is increasing seasonally, geopolitical risks boost the oil market. In China, high inventory and expected supply increase bring pressure, but the strong price of Canadian rapeseed provides support. Pay attention to China - Canada trade relations [8] Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Participate mainly in the short - term and pay attention to Sino - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations [10] - Market review: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the 09 contract was 2674 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan/ton from the previous week [11] - Market outlook: The USDA report has little impact. The good situation of US soybeans restrains the market, but the Sino - US agreement is positive. In China, the concentrated arrival of soybeans increases supply, the aquaculture season boosts demand, and the expected supply increase from China - Canada relations may drag down the price [11] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed up, with a total position of 279,657 lots, a decrease of 8,753 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures also fluctuated and closed up, with a total position of 565,236 lots, an increase of 23,363 lots from the previous week [17] Top 20 Net Positions - The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures increased from + 26,178 last week to + 38,141 this week. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures changed from - 14,635 last week to + 26,893 this week [23] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 0, and those of rapeseed meal were 26,255 [27][30] Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,540 yuan/ton, showing a rebound. The basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was + 230 yuan/ton. The price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,570 yuan/ton, also rebounding. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price was - 174 yuan/ton [36][42] Futures Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was + 150 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was + 311 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [48] Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.48, and the average spot price ratio was 3.816 [51] Price Spreads between Different Oils and Meals - The 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,524 yuan/ton, slightly widening this week. The 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,170 yuan/ton, also slightly widening. The 09 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 367 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday was 310 yuan/ton [61][67] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply: As of June 6, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 250,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in June, July, and August 2025 were 260,000, 280,000, and 450,000 tons respectively. As of June 12, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was + 119 yuan/ton. As of the 23rd week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in coastal main oil mills was 49,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 11.99%. In April 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed was 489,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.92% and a month - on - month increase of 242,500 tons [73][77][81][85] Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 23rd week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China was 882,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.65%. In April 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil was 182,053.44 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.33% and a month - on - month decrease of 162,283.96 tons [89] - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440,400 tons. As of April 30, the catering revenue was 416.7 billion yuan. As of the end of the 23rd week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China was 104,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.97% [93][97] Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 23rd week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China was 14,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.21%. In April 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal was 298,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.15% and a month - on - month increase of 46,700 tons [101][105] - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,777,200 tons [109] 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 19.96% as of June 13, a decrease of 0.38% from last week, at a level comparable to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [113]