Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-13 10:39Report Overview - Report Title: "Stock Index Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: June 13, 2025 - Author: Liao Hongbin 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - A-share major indices fluctuated narrowly this week and all recorded declines, with only the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index falling more than 1%. The four stock index futures also showed narrow fluctuations, and the differentiation between large and small-cap stocks was not obvious. The market trading activity significantly rebounded compared with last week. Overseas, the US extended the exemption period for the Section 301 investigation on China during the Dragon Boat Festival, while the Israel-Iran conflict intensified regional tensions, causing global risk assets to weaken. The US plan to impose additional tariffs on steel household appliances also had a negative impact on the market. Domestically, in May, the CPI turned from rising to falling month-on-month, the year-on-year decline remained the same as last month, the year-on-year decline of PPI widened further, and the CPI-PPI gap widened, indicating continued pressure on prices. The scale of China's import and export trade further shrank in May due to tariff policies. Overall, the previous positive news from China-US trade negotiations has been mostly reflected in prices. The market is currently affected by overseas geopolitical situations and the repeated changes in the trade war. Meanwhile, domestic deflationary pressure persists, and the import and export are weak under tariff impacts, putting pressure on the economic fundamentals and limiting the upside space of the market. The market is in a policy vacuum period with limited incremental funds, making it difficult for the stock market to strengthen significantly. After the short-term risk sentiment is released, the stock market is expected to remain in a volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4][85]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Futures Contracts: IF2506 had a weekly increase of 0.03%, IH2506 decreased by 0.31%, IC2506 increased by 0.06%, and IM2506 decreased by 0.26%. - Spot Indices: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decreased by 0.25%, the Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 0.46%, the China Securities 500 Index decreased by 0.38%, and the China Securities 1000 Index decreased by 0.76% [8]. 3.2 News Overview - Economic Data: In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month; PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. From January to May 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In May, the total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. - International Events: The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The US will impose additional tariffs on steel household appliances starting from June 23. Israel attacked Iran on June 12 [11][12]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - Domestic Main Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.60%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index decreased by 1.89%, the SME 100 Index decreased by 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.22%. - Overseas Main Indices: As of Thursday, the S&P 500 increased by 0.75%, the UK FTSE 100 increased by 0.53%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.42%, and the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.25%. - Industry Sector Performance: Non-ferrous metals and petroleum and petrochemical sectors strengthened significantly, while household appliances and food and beverage sectors declined significantly. - Industry Sector Main Fund Flow: Most industry main funds showed net outflows, with the computer sector having a large net outflow. - SHIBOR Short-term Interest Rate: It first declined and then rose, and the capital market remained loose. - Other Data: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 5.139 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted share lifting market value was 62.877 billion yuan, and the northbound funds had a total trading volume of 592.392 billion yuan. The basis of the IF, IC, and IM main contracts oscillated and converged, while the basis of the IH main contract oscillated [16][17][21][25][29][30]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: After the short-term risk sentiment is released, the stock market is expected to remain in a volatile state. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for now [85].