油脂走高、鸡蛋反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil's sharp rise drives the overall strength of the oil and fat sector. Due to the Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, the Middle - East situation has suddenly become tense, increasing the geopolitical premium and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market. The palm oil price has risen, with its origin showing both supply and demand growth. Meanwhile, eggs have rebounded, and corn has fluctuated at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Crude oil's sharp rise drives the overall strength of the oil and fat sector. The Middle - East situation's tension boosts the geopolitical premium and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market. Palm oil has risen, with its origin having both supply and demand growth. The strong exports of Malaysian palm oil support the price increase, but the production growth also limits the increase. Eggs have rebounded due to potential bullish expectations after contract transfer and over - culling in the breeding end. Corn has fluctuated at a high level, supported by the wheat support policy, tight supply in the producing areas, and a sharp increase in the corn price in the sales areas [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil: Rebound and Oscillation - The palm oil main 2509 contract has risen significantly, boosted by the sharp rise in crude oil. The tense Middle - East situation drives the rise in palm oil. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase, but India's strong demand for palm oil exports supports the price. In China, palm oil inventory has increased year - on - year, and it is mainly for rigid demand. The main 2509 contract shows a box - shaped oscillation. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 8086 and resistance at 8224 [2][3]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil: Gap - up and Higher - The soybean oil main 2509 contract has risen due to the sharp rise in crude oil. However, the subsequent increase may be limited because of the large arrival of imported soybeans in China, high oil mill operating rates, and increased soybean oil supply and inventory. As of the end of the 23rd week, domestic soybean oil inventory was 91.89 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.42%. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 7736 and resistance at 7838 [4]. 3.2.3 Live Hogs: Continuous Rise - The live hog 2509 contract has continued to rise, boosted by the news of state reserve purchases. The 10,000 - ton reserve purchase has boosted market confidence, supported the hog price, and increased buying from long positions. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 13700 and resistance at 13880 [6]. 3.2.4 Eggs: Rebound from Low Levels - The egg main 2508 contract has rebounded from low levels, boosted by increased culling of laying hens. After contract transfer, there are potential bullish factors. The accelerated culling of hens may reduce egg supply pressure. The strategy is to close short positions and pay attention to whether the resistance of the 20 - day moving average can be overcome, with support at 3500 and resistance at 3566 [8]. 3.2.5 Sugar: Rebound after Reaching a Low - The sugar main 2509 contract has rebounded after reaching a low, supported by some short - covering. The increased sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand puts pressure on the international sugar price. Although China's sugar production has increased and import volume is expected to rise, the high sugar sales rate and the upcoming summer consumption season support the price. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 5610 and resistance at 5686 [10]. 3.2.6 Soybean Meal: Oscillation and Decline - The soybean meal 2509 contract has oscillated and declined at a high level due to long - position profit - taking and cost - driven cooling. The high operating rate of domestic oil mills has increased soybean meal inventory. The strategy is to close long positions, with support at 3037 and resistance at 3065 [12]. 3.2.7 Corn: High - level Fluctuation - The corn main 2507 contract has fluctuated at a high level, first falling and then rising. Supported by the wheat support policy, tight supply in the producing areas, low imported corn, and a sharp increase in the sales - area spot price, the adjustment space is limited. The strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 2372 and resistance at 2387 [15]. 3.2.8 Cotton: First Decline then Rise, High - level Oscillation - The cotton main 2509 contract has first declined then risen and is running strongly. The Sino - US economic and trade consultation meeting has increased market optimism, and the decreasing port inventory of imported cotton also has a positive impact. Although the domestic textile market is in the off - season, the easing of Sino - US relations has stabilized market sentiment. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 13390 and resistance at 13600 [16][18]. 3.2.9 Apples: Narrow - range Oscillation - The apple main 2510 contract has oscillated in a narrow range, with limited rebound space. Low inventory supports the price, but slow sales in the off - season offset some of the support. The inventory depletion has slowed down, and the expected reduction in new - season production has decreased. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 7544 and resistance at 7637 [19][21]. 3.2.10 Peanuts: Narrow - range Fluctuation - The peanut main 2510 contract has had a small rebound after a continuous sharp decline and is fluctuating in a narrow range. The peanut market currently has weak supply and demand. Some suppliers' profit - taking and weak terminal demand put pressure on the price. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 8180 and resistance at 8232 [22].