Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The sudden attack by Israel on Iran has disrupted the market rhythm, with short - term geopolitical logic overriding the medium - term supply - demand logic, leading to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. It is believed that a full - scale war between Israel and Iran is unlikely. After the short - term sentiment pushes up the valuations of crude oil and chemicals, mid - term short - selling opportunities should be sought after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog (1) Overall Variety Analysis - For most varieties (crude oil, EB, PX, PTA, PP, plastic, methanol), the medium - term structure is bearish, while the short - term structure is bullish. For EG, rubber, PVC, and BR rubber, both the medium - term and short - term structures are bearish. Different trading strategies are recommended for each variety based on technical analysis [2]. (2) Crude Oil - Logic: The Israel - Iran attack makes geopolitical sentiment the short - term dominant factor. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Iranian geopolitical situation [5]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a daily limit up and then the opening of the board at the end of the session, the short - term support is around 490. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break [5]. (3) Benzene (Styrene) - Logic: The cost - side pure benzene has high port inventory and strong import increment expectations. The supply of benzene styrene is expected to remain high, while the demand has not improved, so it is bearish in the medium term [7]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement with crude oil, the hourly - level support is around 7315. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [10]. (4) Rubber - Logic: The price of Thai glue has dropped nearly 20% in the past two weeks, and the terminal demand is weak, so it is bearish in the medium term [11]. - Technical Analysis: Both the daily - level and hourly - level show downward structures. After a volume - reducing rebound affected by crude oil, it has not broken through the short - term pressure of 14000. The hourly - cycle strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss reference of 14000 [13]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are average. The supply of butadiene is expected to increase, which will put pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost side. The demand is also affected by tire inventory pressure, so it is bearish in the medium term [14]. - Technical Analysis: Both the daily - level and hourly - level show downward structures. After a volume - reducing rebound affected by crude oil, it has not effectively broken through the short - term pressure of 11470. The hourly - cycle strategy is to hold short positions with a take - profit reference of 11550 [17]. (6) PX - Logic: The supply - side profit has recovered, and the short - term supply - demand has strengthened. There are many maintenance plans in July, so the supply contraction expectation is strong. The fundamentals are bullish, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement with crude oil, it has broken through the pressure and reversed in the short term. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [20]. (7) PTA - Logic: The supply - side operating rate has recovered, and the demand - side polyester profit is weak. The short - term supply - demand has weakened compared with before. Attention should be paid to the crude oil drive [21]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement with crude oil, it has broken through the pressure and reversed in the short term. The hourly - cycle strategy is to stop - loss and exit short positions [21]. (8) PP - Logic: The demand is weak in the off - season, and there are large - scale device productions in June, with a strong supply increase expectation. Short - term cost fluctuations driven by crude oil should be noted [25]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement with crude oil, it has broken through the pressure and reversed in the short term. The hourly - cycle strategy is to take - profit and exit short positions [25]. (9) Methanol - Logic: The domestic device profit is high, the import volume is large, and the inventory is accumulating, so there is great medium - term pressure on the market [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement affected by crude oil, the short - term support is around 2275. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [28]. (10) PVC - Logic: In the real - estate downward cycle, the downstream operating rate is at the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and the export demand is weak. The supply - side operating rate is around the average level in the same period of previous years, so the fundamentals are bearish [29]. - Technical Analysis: Both the daily - level and hourly - level show downward structures. After a small - scale volume - increasing rebound, it has not broken through the pressure. The short - term pressure is around 4880. The hourly - cycle strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss reference of 4865 [29]. (11) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply has tightened, the short - term polyester demand is okay, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term fundamentals are supported, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [32]. - Technical Analysis: Both the daily - level and hourly - level show downward structures. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing rebound affected by crude oil, it has broken through the short - term pressure. The hourly - cycle strategy is to take - profit and exit short positions [32]. (12) Plastic - Logic: There are many maintenance devices recently, but there is large - scale device production pressure in June and the second half of the year, so it is bearish in the medium term [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. After a volume - reducing and price - increasing movement affected by crude oil, it is still affected by sentiment. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [36].
以色列袭击打乱市场节奏,等待地缘形式明朗
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-06-13 12:27