棉花：全球产量和期末库存下调，报告偏多

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The June USDA cotton monthly report is bullish, but the new - year global supply remains relatively loose, and international cotton prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels. The current U.S. cotton is in the early growth stage with normal weather, and the subsequent weather conditions need to be continuously monitored. The performance of U.S. cotton demand is still weak, especially the new - year signing is still cautious, and the impact of Sino - U.S. relations on the new - year demand for U.S. cotton is significant [1][2] Summary by Related Content 2025/26 Annual Supply - Demand Data Adjustments - Production: Global cotton production in 25/26 decreased by 178,000 tons month - on - month. China's production increased by 218,000 tons to 6.532 million tons, while India's production decreased by 217,000 tons, the U.S. decreased by 109,000 tons, and Pakistan decreased by 65,000 tons. After the reduction in U.S. cotton production, it has reached a multi - year low. The harvested area was adjusted from 8.37 million acres to 8.19 million acres, and the yield per acre dropped from 832 pounds/acre to 820 pounds/acre [1] - Consumption: Global consumption in 25/26 decreased by 70,000 tons month - on - month. China's consumption remained unchanged, while India decreased by 109,000 tons, Bangladesh decreased by 22,000 tons, and Turkey decreased by 44,000 tons. Overall, global consumption is stable, but there are still many global trade conflicts [1] - Imports: Global cotton imports in 25/26 decreased by 1,000 tons month - on - month. Bangladesh, China, and Turkey reduced their imports by 22,000 tons, 109,000 tons, and 44,000 tons respectively, while Pakistan increased its imports by 65,000 tons. China ranks third in annual imports, lower than Bangladesh and Vietnam [2] - Exports: Brazil's exports increased by 65,000 tons, Australia's exports increased by 22,000 tons, and India's exports decreased by 109,000 tons [2] - Ending Stocks: Global ending stocks in 25/26 decreased by 344,000 tons month - on - month. China's ending stocks remained unchanged, while India, the U.S., Brazil, and Australia had changes of - 65,000 tons, - 196,000 tons, - 87,000 tons, and + 22,000 tons respectively. After the adjustment in the June report, the 25/26 global ending stocks are 107,000 tons lower than the 24/25 level [2] Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending stocks of major cotton - producing and consuming countries from 2021/22 to 2025/26 - 6 months, as well as the monthly and annual changes [4]