能源直播间2025年度第4期：旺季临近，6月热点品种精粹

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The mid - term bottom of thermal coal is emerging [3][4]. - For crude oil, both the optimistic expectations in China and the US and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, and it is questioned whether the soaring market can continue [3][8]. - For asphalt, it has encountered a decline after reaching a five - year high, and it is questioned whether the cracking trend has reversed [3][67]. Summary by Related Catalogs Thermal Coal - The premium of high - calorie coal at Bohai Rim ports is presented, showing the price trends of Mongolian coal with different calorific values [5]. Crude Oil Demand - side Outlook - The results of the London talks are limited, and there are still uncertainties in the reciprocal tariffs. The China - US container ship departure volume and shipping freight rates are affected by trade policies [12][13]. - A series of trade events have occurred, including the US - UK trade agreement on May 8, the Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement on May 12, the Sino - US presidential phone call consensus on June 5, and the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism on June 9 - 10. Attention should be paid to the trade negotiation progress before the expiration of the US tariff exemptions for most countries on July 8 and the expiration of the 24% reciprocal tariff exemption between China and the US in mid - August [14]. - The 4 - week average year - on - year growth rate of US refined oil apparent demand is +0.5%, with gasoline at - 2.5%, diesel at - 5.9%, and jet fuel at +1.3%. The latest ground congestion index is up 0.1% year - on - year [23][25]. - The refining profits of European and American refineries are under pressure again, and the subsequent start - up demand is more seasonally supported [26]. Geopolitical Risks - There are continuous geopolitical events in the Middle East, such as the US - UK joint air strike on the Houthi in January, the Russian terminal being attacked by Ukrainian drones in January, the Iranian consulate in Syria being attacked in April, the Iranian attack on Israel in April, and the Israeli retaliatory air strike on Iran in April. The Brent crude oil price has risen significantly due to these events [30][32][33]. - The Strait of Hormuz is an important oil transportation channel. In 2023 H1, its crude oil and condensate transportation volume was 14.7 million barrels per day, and the refined oil transportation volume was 5.8 million barrels per day. Threats to block it can cause significant fluctuations in oil prices [35]. Supply - side Situation - Some oil tankers are under sanctions, which affects the transportation of oil. The production and export of Iranian and Venezuelan crude oil are also affected by various factors [37]. - The number of US non - Gulf of Mexico oil rigs and the capital expenditure plans of US shale oil listed companies are related to oil production [43][44]. - The production and production targets of OPEC + countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan, are presented [48][51][52][53]. Price and Inventory - The futures settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil are affected by various factors such as the financial crisis, OPEC's production decisions, and geopolitical events [55]. - The inventory data of crude oil and refined oil, including on - land commercial inventory, floating storage inventory, and total inventory, are provided [59][62]. - The global demand for OPEC + crude oil supply, the supply - demand gap, and the global oil inventory are analyzed [64]. Asphalt Cracking Situation - In March 2025, it was recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on BU cracking on pullbacks. After late May, the cracking has declined from the high level, but the upward elasticity of the cracking spread remains unchanged due to low supply, low inventory, and other factors. The sudden rise in oil prices since June 11 has caused the BU cracking to decline passively [71]. Supply - side Constraints - The year - on - year changes in asphalt production of different regions and enterprises in 2025 are presented. Local refineries have problems with non - quota raw materials and rely on crude oil quotas. The import of Venezuelan oil by local refineries in 2025 has accelerated the consumption of crude oil quotas, and the production and export of Venezuelan crude oil are still restricted [72][73][78]. Demand - side Situation - The road demand for asphalt has limited new demand growth, but the maintenance demand is rising. The consumption of asphalt for road maintenance is gradually catching up with that for new road construction. In the neutral scenario, the asphalt demand for roads in 2025 is expected to be 21.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [87][90]. - The shipment of 54 sample asphalt refineries has been improving since late April, and the year - on - year growth has turned positive since the end of May. Leading indicators such as the issuance of special bonds and the domestic sales of road rollers are positive, and Q3 is a key observation window for asphalt demand [94]. Inventory Situation - The asphalt inventory is at a relatively low level, and the balance sheet is expected to continue the de - stocking trend in the third quarter [95][97].