Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The overall demand in the steel industry is weak, with poor improvement in infrastructure and lack of sustainability in real - estate sales recovery. The short - term trend is mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - Iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon are all affected by geopolitical tensions, with short - term price fluctuations. The supply of iron ore is under increasing pressure, and the risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain still exists. The price rebound space of coke and coking coal is limited due to inventory pressure. Silicomanganese is recommended to short on rallies, and the demand for ferrosilicon is generally okay [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Thread: The apparent demand continues to decline, production drops synchronously, and the de - stocking pace slows down [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Both demand and production decline slightly, and inventory continues to accumulate [2] - Overall: The demand is weak, the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain is fermented repeatedly, and the short - term trend is mainly volatile [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are relatively strong, domestic arrivals increase, and port inventories stop falling and start to increase [3] - Demand: Terminal demand weakens in the off - season, iron - water production changes little, and the risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain still exists [3] - Overall: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - Supply: Production decreases slightly, and inventory decreases slightly [4] - Demand: Downstream iron - water production remains stable above 241 [4] - Overall: The price rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure [4] Coking Coal - Supply: Mine production decreases slightly, and total inventory increases slightly [6] - Demand: Downstream iron - water production remains stable above 241 [6] - Overall: The price rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure [6] Silicomanganese - Supply: Production starts to recover, and manganese ore inventory accumulates [7] - Demand: Iron - water production declines slightly [7] - Overall: The price is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies [7] Ferrosilicon - Supply: Supply continues to decline [8] - Demand: Export demand is stable, and secondary demand remains high [8] - Overall: The demand is generally okay, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of de - stocking [8]
黑色金属日报-20250613
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-06-13 13:32