国投期货化工日报-20250613

Report Overview - There is no overall investment rating for the industry provided in the report [1] - The core view of the report is that due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, international oil prices have risen significantly, affecting the prices of various chemical products. Each chemical product has its own supply - demand fundamentals, and price trends vary. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as oil prices, production and shipment rhythms, and downstream demand [2][3][4] Each Chemical Product Summary Methanol - Middle - East geopolitical conflicts led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, increasing shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. The market expects future coastal imports to be far lower than expected, causing the methanol futures to hit the daily limit. Fundamentally, the arrival volume of imported methanol is high, the operating rate of coastal olefin plants has declined slightly, and port inventories have increased significantly. Domestic supply remains sufficient, and producer inventories have increased slightly. The volatility of methanol prices is expected to increase [2] Urea - The urea futures stopped falling, and the spot market improved. Agricultural purchases are scattered, and the production of high - nitrogen fertilizers for compound fertilizers in summer is ending. Demand support is insufficient, and producer inventories have increased significantly. Although exports are gradually opening up, the inspection process is slow, and some goods are locked, with port inventories remaining flat. Supply remains sufficient, and short - term downstream industrial and agricultural demand is weak. The price is weak in the short term but may stabilize and rebound as rainfall increases in major regions [3] Polyolefins - The main futures contracts of polyolefins rose significantly. The military conflict between Israel and Iran escalated the Middle - East geopolitical situation, increasing concerns about oil supply and causing a sharp rise in international oil prices, which directly drove up the prices of downstream products in the industrial chain. It is recommended to pay attention to the release of macro - risks in the future [4] Styrene - The main futures contract of styrene rose significantly. The sharp rise in international oil prices due to Middle - East geopolitical risks strengthened the cost support for styrene. Fundamentally, supply is expected to increase as multiple plants restart, and the operating rates of downstream "3S" plants are also expected to increase [5] Polyester - Geopolitical conflicts led to a sharp rise in oil prices, causing PX and PTA to rise in the morning but then partially giving back gains. The weekly loads of PX and PTA increased, while the operating rates of terminal weaving and dyeing decreased, and terminal orders weakened. The sales of filament yarns increased significantly, and enterprises are expected to maintain their operating rates after destocking. In the second half of the year, with the expectation of PTA inventory accumulation, holding far - month reverse spreads is recommended. PX has no prominent supply - demand contradictions but may have periodic mismatches, and its absolute price is mainly driven by oil prices. Ethylene glycol rebounded due to the boost of oil prices, with increased weekly operation, port inventory accumulation, and stable arrival volume. The supply - demand situation is slightly weakening. Short - fiber and bottle - grade chips rose and then moderately declined, with the overall price center rising. The short - fiber 7 - 8 spread fluctuated sharply. The industry's operating rate has declined from the high point in the first half of the year, and inventories have continuously decreased. Bottle - grade chips may face inventory accumulation pressure after the peak order season [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC closed higher. The fundamental situation of high supply and weak demand continues. In June, with fewer maintenance and new production, supply pressure is high. Exports have entered the off - season, domestic demand is weak, and there is inventory pressure. Although the price of calcium carbide has risen, chlor - alkali integration still has profits, and cost support is weak. The futures price may fluctuate at a low level. Caustic soda fell below the previous low. Major alumina plants in Shandong reduced their quotes. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is good, and with less maintenance and new production capacity release in June, supply is at a high level. Non - aluminum demand is average, and there is resistance to high prices. Liquid caustic soda inventories are high, and the futures price is under pressure at a high level [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass closed lower. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, with high inventory pressure. Recently, cold repairs and ignitions coexist, and production capacity fluctuates slightly. Pay attention to the fuel switch of production lines in Shahe. Processing orders are weak. During the rainy season and with high inventories, the driving force is still weak. Soda ash continues to have high supply and high inventory, and the cost has decreased, causing the futures price to reach a new low [8]