国投期货能源日报-20250613

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★, with a relatively more bullish indication [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term equilibrium state with poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks from the Israel - Iran conflict have caused a sharp rise in crude oil futures, and there is still room for trading geopolitical risks.虚值原油看涨期权 have hedging value, and short positions in futures can be considered after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [2] - In the context of the continuous fermentation of geopolitical conflicts, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil follow the upward trend of oil prices, but their fundamentals face challenges such as weak demand and increased supply [2] - The price of asphalt follows the rise of crude oil but lags behind, and its cracking spread has dropped significantly. There are still fundamental support factors, and investment opportunities can be considered after the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil is removed [3] - The price of LPG has a limited follow - up increase due to its high price - to - value ratio and loose fundamentals. It may fall back if there is no substantial impact on Middle - East exports, and the market will fluctuate widely [4] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - Recently, crude oil futures have soared, with the Brent 08 contract rising 4.3% in the Asian session and the SC07 contract rising 6.9% intraday. The risk of a large - scale conflict in the Middle East has materialized. Referring to the extreme - case pricing when Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the upward target of the Brent near - month contract is around $80/barrel [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical conflicts have led to a continuous rise in oil prices, and the domestic fuel oil futures have followed suit, with the increase of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) greater than that of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU). The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep - processing is still relatively low, and the supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, while the demand is insufficient [2] Asphalt - The price of asphalt has followed the rise of crude oil but lags behind, and its cracking spread has fallen below the previous low. The subsequent increase in production by local refineries lacks momentum, and the increase in asphalt production by major refineries is expected to be limited. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased, and the terminal demand is expected to be boosted. The de - stocking trend is expected to continue [3] LPG - The price of LPG has a limited follow - up increase due to its high price - to - value ratio and loose fundamentals. If there is no substantial impact on Middle - East exports, it may fall back. The domestic chemical demand has increased, but the subsequent growth space is limited, and the inventory of terminals and refineries has increased. The market will fluctuate widely [4]