Orient Securities·2025-06-15 00:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Increased external uncertainties and the continuation of loose monetary policy are expected to lead to a long-term downward trend in overall expected returns, making low-volatility dividend strategies effective [3][25]. - The reform of public funds is anticipated to help banks achieve excess returns by shifting asset allocation styles [3]. - The insurance preset interest rate may be lowered again in Q3 2025, which could further enhance the tolerance for dividend yields, supporting absolute returns for banks [3][25]. - The banking sector's fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, primarily due to alleviated pressures on non-interest income growth [3][25]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loan Growth - In May 2025, social financing grew by 8.7% year-on-year, with a total increment of 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 227.1 billion yuan compared to the previous year [9][10]. - Government bonds increased by 236.7 billion yuan year-on-year, significantly contributing to social financing growth [11]. - Corporate direct financing also saw a year-on-year increase of 125.2 billion yuan, mainly driven by a rise in bond financing [11]. - Loan growth showed a slight decline, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1% in May 2025, reflecting weak demand and debt replacement effects [16]. M1 and M2 Growth - M1 increased by 2.3% year-on-year in May 2025, with a notable month-on-month recovery of 0.8 percentage points, while M2 grew by 7.9% year-on-year [19]. - The gap between M1 and M2 growth rates narrowed to 5.6%, indicating improved liquidity conditions [19]. Investment Recommendations - Two main investment lines are suggested: 1. Focus on convertible bonds with rebound potential, specifically Hangzhou Bank (600926, Buy) and Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy) [26]. 2. Left-side positioning in high-dividend stocks, with recommendations for major state-owned banks such as CITIC Bank (601998, Not Rated), Industrial Bank (601166, Not Rated), Jiangsu Bank (600919, Buy), and Agricultural Bank (601288, Not Rated) [26].