纸浆周报：震荡下行，关注主力合约移仓换月-20250615

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly paper pulp report from Guoxin Futures, covering the week up to June 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The main contract of pulp futures shifted positions. The SP2509 contract showed a weak performance, with a weekly decline of 0.72% [6] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Pulp Market Prices - As of June 12, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,989 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous week and changing from a decline to stability; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,161 yuan/ton, rising 0.07% from the previous week and changing from a decline to an increase; the weekly average price of imported natural pulp was 5,272 yuan/ton, falling 0.75% from the previous week, with the decline rate widening by 0.17 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3,818 yuan/ton, falling 0.52% from the previous week, with the decline rate widening by 0.42 percentage points [11] April Pulp Imports - In April 2025, China imported 2.893 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.8252 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 630.90 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to April increased by 1% and 0.5% respectively compared to the same period last year. In April, the import volume of softwood pulp was 757,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.57%; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 1.1993 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.41% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.70% [15] Port Inventory - As of June 12, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.1771 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.07% and changing from a decline to an increase [18][34] European Inventory in April - In April 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 12.81% month-on-month but increased by 13.61% compared to April 2024. In April, the inventory in the ports of the UK and Germany increased by 38.60% and 15.72% month-on-month respectively, while the inventory in the ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Italy, and Spain decreased by 18.88%, 20.57%, and 2.67% month-on-month respectively. Overall, the inventory in most European ports decreased month-on-month, leading to a month-on-month decline in the total European port inventory in April [21] Consumption - Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non-wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. In terms of wood pulp, the regular maintenance of domestic hardwood pulp industry sample enterprises ended this week, driving the industry's operating load rate to rebound by 2 percentage points compared to the previous week; the production schedule of chemimechanical pulp industry sample enterprises was stable, and the overall industry's operating load rate remained the same as the previous week. In terms of non-wood pulp, a few sample bamboo pulp enterprises stopped for maintenance, and the operating load rate decreased by 3 percentage points compared to the previous week; the previously maintained equipment of sugarcane pulp resumed production, and some enterprises flexibly switched to bagasse pulp production, with the operating load rate increasing by 7 percentage points compared to the previous week [27] Group 4: Future Outlook - As of June 12, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports increased by 2.07% month-on-month and changed from a decline to an increase. Regarding the external quotation, after Chile's Arauco Company announced the external quotation for wood pulp in June, the June quotation of CMPC's hardwood pulp "Little Bird" remained unchanged; other pulp mills have not yet announced a new round of external prices. Imported wood pulp traders lowered the spot prices of some grades in some regions, and downstream paper mills showed insufficient enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The sales rhythm of the pulp market was slow, and the dynamic game continued. The operation suggestion is to wait and see for now [34]