油脂油料周报：地缘政治影响，油脂先抑后扬-20250615

Report Title - Geopolitical Impact: Oils and Fats First Decline Then Rise - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Oils and Oilseeds [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The protein meal and oil markets are influenced by multiple factors such as geopolitics, trade policies, weather, and supply - demand relationships. The markets show volatile trends, and investors should pay attention to short - term and long - term indicators and adopt appropriate trading strategies [6][70][141][142] Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis - Market Trends: CBOT soybeans fluctuated and declined this week, while domestic soybean meal fluctuated higher. The M2509 contract oscillated around 3050. The spread between buying meal and selling oil promoted the upward movement of Dalian soybean meal [6] - USDA Export Inspection: As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 547,040 tons, higher than expected. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year was 45,188,245 tons, higher than the same period last year [11] - Sowing Progress: As of June 8, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 90%, lower than the market expectation of 91%. The emergence rate was 75%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 68% [23] - Weather: Showery weather dominated the central and eastern United States, affecting fieldwork. Some areas had heavy rainfall, while others had light or no rainfall. Temperature differences were significant in different regions [26] - Oilseed Market: In May 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record high of 1.392 billion tons. Brazil's soybean export volume in June is expected to be 1.408 billion tons. The USDA maintained its production forecasts for South American soybeans in the 2024/25 season [35][36][38] - Inventory and Profit: As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 5.9108 million tons. The domestic spot crushing profit fluctuated around the break - even point, and the futures crushing profit was slightly in the red [46] - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal: The domestic soybean oil mill's soybean opening rate decreased slightly, but remained at a high level. The soybean meal inventory increased, and the contract volume also increased significantly. The opening rate of imported rapeseed oil mills decreased and was at a very low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased [54][63] Part 2: Oil Market Analysis - Market Trends: International oils fluctuated within a range this week. US soybean oil fluctuated and closed higher, and Malaysian palm oil first declined then rose. Domestic oils showed a rotation effect, with wide - range fluctuations [70] - International Oil Information: China's edible vegetable oil imports in May were 462,000 tons. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May reached an 8 - month high. The US bio - diesel and renewable diesel imports are expected to decrease significantly in 2025 [75][76] - Weather in Southeast Asia: Southwest monsoons brought moderate to heavy showers to Thailand and surrounding areas. Malaysia and Indonesia also had widespread showers, which were beneficial to oil palm areas [85] - Inventory: As of the 23rd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.1504 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.85% [96] - Price Relationships: This week, the overall trend of oils was rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil. The soybean - palm oil spread slightly rebounded. The oil - meal ratios of soybeans and rapeseed continued to decline, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread slightly decreased [113][119] Part 3: Market Outlook - Seasonal Analysis: Seasonal indices of various products such as US soybeans, soybean meal, and domestic oils and meals are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn from these indices [133][135][137] - Technical Indicators: For the main contracts, the short - term indicators of soybean meal are bullish, while the medium - and long - term indicators are entangled. Rapeseed meal's short - and medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicator is entangled. Soybean oil's short - and medium - term indicators are entangled, and the long - term indicator is bearish. Palm oil and rapeseed oil's short -, medium -, and long - term indicators are all entangled [141] - Fundamentals: For protein meals, the international market has limited short - term weather speculation space, and the US trade policy is improving. The domestic market may see accelerated inventory accumulation of soybean meal, and the cost - driven effect of Dalian soybean meal is weakened. For oils, international oils are affected by geopolitics and bio - diesel policies, with wide - range fluctuations. Domestic oils follow international trends and should be traded in a band - trading manner [142]