2025年5月份金融数据点评：信用扩张走向量价平衡

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a trend towards a balance between quantity and price in credit expansion, with a focus on the need for effective demand improvement to achieve a stable equilibrium in loan volume, pricing, and risk [5][44]. - The banking sector has shown resilience, with the banking index rising 11.8% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.6 percentage points, ranking third among all industries [44]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, M2 grew by 7.9%, while M1 increased by 2.3%. New RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion, with a growth rate of 7.1% [4][29]. - The total social financing scale in May was 22.89 trillion, with a stable growth rate of 8.7%, consistent with the end of April [29][36]. Credit Demand and Supply - The report notes that the demand for credit remains relatively weak, with May's new RMB loans showing a year-on-year decrease. The total new loans from January to May were 10.7 trillion, down 460 billion from the previous year [4][5]. - Corporate loans accounted for 86% of new loans in May, with short-term loans showing a significant increase due to banks adjusting their strategies to meet credit demand [15][19]. Consumer Credit Trends - Consumer loans in May totaled 54 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 217 billion. The report indicates that mortgage demand remains under pressure, with expectations of continued negative growth in this area [22][23]. - The average interest rate for new personal housing loans was stable at 3.1%, indicating a bottoming out phase for mortgage pricing [25][19]. Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The report anticipates that June will see an increase in loan issuance due to seasonal factors and government debt replacement efforts, which are expected to stabilize credit growth [5][44]. - The banking sector's net interest margin (NIM) is showing signs of stabilization, with expectations for continued improvement in the operating environment due to supportive monetary policies [44][45].