2025年5月金融数据点评：非银存款与居民存款是核心

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 2.29 trillion RMB, up from 1.16 trillion RMB in the previous period[1] - New RMB loans amounted to 620 billion RMB, an increase from 280 billion RMB previously[1] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock remained at 8.7%, consistent with the previous value[1] - M2 money supply grew by 7.9% year-on-year, slightly up from 8% previously[1] - New M1, under the new calculation, increased by 2.3% year-on-year, compared to 1.5% previously[1] Group 2: Deposit Trends - Non-bank deposits increased significantly, with a new scale of approximately 2.8 trillion RMB in April and May, the highest since 2016[7] - Corporate deposits fell by about 1.7 trillion RMB in April and May, indicating a potential cash flow impact due to external uncertainties[4] - The proportion of new household deposits and cash in M2 has been decreasing, suggesting a gradual "unfreezing" of liquidity[3] - The government accelerated bond issuance, with a net expenditure of approximately 1.1 trillion RMB in April and May, significantly higher than the average of 0.1 trillion RMB from 2017 to 2024[8] Group 3: Economic Implications - The improvement in the corporate-resident deposit gap since September 2024 suggests that domestic policy certainty is a crucial variable influencing economic behavior[2] - The current trend indicates that while household liquidity is gradually being released, corporate cash flow remains weak, potentially affecting production capabilities[26] - The government’s proactive fiscal measures and the increase in non-bank deposits are expected to support ongoing economic recovery despite external uncertainties[26]