策略周专题（2025年6月第2期）：中东局势动荡对资产价格有何影响？

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a pullback this week due to a decline in risk appetite, influenced by deteriorating geopolitical conditions overseas. Most major indices fell, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 0.2%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index had the largest decline of 1.9%. Currently, the valuation of the Wind All A Index is at a historical medium level since 2010 [1][13][15] - In terms of industry performance, there was a divergence in the performance of the Shenwan first-level industries this week. Non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and agriculture-related sectors performed relatively well, while food and beverage, home appliances, and building materials sectors saw significant declines [1][15][24] Group 2 - Recent turmoil in the Middle East, particularly Israel's strikes against Iran, is not expected to have a significant impact on the A-share and Hong Kong markets. Historically, the impact of Middle Eastern tensions on these markets has been minimal. The low share of the Middle East in China's import and export trade also contributes to the limited effect on the domestic economy [2][3][21] - The short-term impact of the Middle East situation on industry performance is expected to be minimal. In the long term, the effect will depend on the duration of the conflict. A shorter conflict may benefit growth sectors, while a longer one could favor resource, transportation, and dividend sectors [2][3][39] Group 3 - The market is anticipated to maintain a consolidation state, with three main lines of focus: domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and sectors that are currently underweighted by funds. The expansion of domestic demand is a key focus of recent domestic policies, which may lead to continued policy catalysts [4][18] - The historical data indicates that the average performance of major assets following conflicts in the Middle East shows that the A-share and Hong Kong markets do not experience significant declines. The average performance of the Wind All A Index and the Hang Seng Index remains stable, with a tendency for narrow fluctuations [24][25][29]