HUAXI Securities·2025-06-15 06:33Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]