Global Asset Price Review - The report highlights a significant increase in global political instability, particularly due to armed conflict between Israel and Iran, leading to a substantial rise in oil prices, with Brent crude oil increasing by 12.80% and gold by 3.65% during the week [10][15] - The U.S. ten-year Treasury yield decreased by 10 basis points to 4.41%, while the U.S. dollar index weakened to 98.1 [10][15] - Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, with specific performance metrics showing emerging markets at 0.60%, Hang Seng Index at 0.42%, and S&P 500 at -0.39% [10][15] Global Fund Flows - There was a notable outflow of funds from U.S. equity funds, with a total outflow of $90.8 billion, while fixed-income funds saw an inflow of $54.2 billion [17] - The report indicates that developed equity markets experienced a total outflow of $94.9 billion, with U.S. equities being the primary contributor to this outflow [17] Global Asset Valuation - The report states that the risk-adjusted return of A-shares remains significantly higher than that of overseas markets, with the ERP of the CSI 300 at 78% and the Shanghai Composite Index at 71% [10][15] - The risk-adjusted return for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 has decreased to 35% and 24%, respectively, indicating a decline in their dynamic risk-adjusted returns [10][15] Global Economic Data - The U.S. economy is showing signs of stagflation, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs both declining, and the non-manufacturing PMI falling below the expansion threshold [10][15] - The U.S. CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a break in the previous downward trend, while non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, reflecting a slowdown [10][15]
全球资产配置每周聚焦：全球地缘不确定性上升，“石油危机”情景预演-20250615
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-06-15 06:48