Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-06-15 06:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the domestic beauty and skincare industry, particularly focusing on the potential of Chinese brands expanding into Southeast Asia [4]. Core Insights - The domestic skincare market is entering a steady growth phase, with the market size projected to increase from CNY 244.9 billion in 2019 to CNY 271.2 billion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 2.1%. The color cosmetics market is expected to grow from CNY 59.3 billion to CNY 62.0 billion during the same period, with a CAGR of 0.9% [6][20]. - Southeast Asia is positioned as a crucial trade hub with high economic growth rates, where countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam are expected to maintain GDP growth around 5% from 2024 to 2026, outpacing developed nations by 1.5%-2% [6][8]. - The increasing e-commerce penetration in Southeast Asia is driving online beauty consumption, with Indonesia's e-commerce sales for skincare rising from 1.3% in 2016 to 20.9% in 2021 [6][8]. - The Southeast Asian market exhibits a layered consumer demand, with high-end brands having potential in Singapore, while mid-range brands can thrive in Malaysia, and cost-effective products are favored in Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam [6][8]. Summary by Sections Supply Chain Advantages - Domestic beauty brands are enhancing their supply chain capabilities, which allows them to explore new markets abroad. The trend of outsourcing to export-oriented brands is becoming a viable strategy for differentiation [6][20]. - The geographical advantages and high growth potential of Southeast Asia make it an attractive market for beauty consumption [6][29]. Production and Channel Flexibility - The report highlights the role of OEM/ODM factories in enabling brands to scale quickly in Southeast Asia, reducing investment risks and allowing brands to focus on marketing [46]. - The rise of online sales channels, particularly through platforms like Shopee and Lazada, is transforming the beauty retail landscape in Southeast Asia, with significant sales contributions from these platforms [60]. Consumer Demand Segmentation - The report identifies three tiers of consumer demand in Southeast Asia, suggesting that high-end brands can succeed in Singapore, while mid-range brands can find opportunities in Malaysia, and budget-friendly products are suitable for Indonesia and Vietnam [6][8]. Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of localizing operations and leveraging supply chain advantages for Chinese beauty brands entering Southeast Asia, with several companies already establishing a presence in the region [7][48].