淡季特征明显,成本中枢下移
Minsheng Securities·2025-06-15 06:40

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., and Jiuli Special Steel [3][4]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a clear seasonal downturn, with both production and demand declining, leading to a decrease in steel prices. The cost structure is shifting downward, which may improve immediate profit margins [3][4]. - The report highlights that the recent imposition of a 50% tariff on various steel appliances by the U.S. is expected to have limited impact on overall steel demand, although future policy developments could introduce uncertainties [3][4]. - The report suggests that the potential for production adjustments in crude steel is increasing due to weak domestic demand and external uncertainties, alongside a more relaxed supply of raw materials [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of June 13, steel prices have decreased, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,070 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw price declines [1][9][10]. Production and Inventory - Total steel production for the week was 8.59 million tons, a decrease of 215,300 tons from the previous week. Social inventory of major steel products fell by 36,300 tons to 9.26 million tons [2][3]. Profitability - Steel margins have improved slightly, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins increasing by 26 CNY/ton, 32 CNY/ton, and 21 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: - General Steel: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - Special Steel: CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., Xianglou New Materials - Pipe Materials: Jiuli Special Steel, Wujin Stainless Steel, Youfa Group - High-Temperature Alloy: Fushun Special Steel [3][4]. Raw Material Market - Domestic iron ore prices are stable with slight declines, while imported iron ore prices have decreased. Scrap steel prices remained unchanged [1][28].