大炼化周报：供需偏弱，油价上涨并未明显提振炼化产品价格-20250615

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" as the industry index is expected to be in line with the benchmark [137] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply and demand in the refining sector are weak, and the recent rise in oil prices has not significantly boosted the prices of refined products [1] - Brent crude oil prices increased significantly due to geopolitical tensions and optimistic market sentiment regarding US-China negotiations, but later faced downward pressure from revised supply and demand forecasts [1][13] - The report highlights that the chemical sector remains under pressure, with limited price increases for chemical products despite rising oil prices [1] - The polyester sector is experiencing a decline in prices and profitability due to weak demand and high supply levels [1] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - As of June 13, 2025, the domestic refining project price difference was 2394.77 CNY/ton, a decrease of 112.93 CNY/ton (-4.50%) from the previous week, while the international price difference was 933.65 CNY/ton, down 117.06 CNY/ton (-11.14%) [2] - Brent crude oil averaged 68.76 USD/barrel, up 5.52% week-on-week, with prices on June 13 reaching 74.23 USD/barrel [2][13] Chemical Sector - The report notes that the price of polyethylene and polypropylene has seen slight increases, but the price differences remain unchanged [1] - EVA prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand, with the average price at 10957.14 CNY/ton, down 42.86 CNY/ton [49] - Pure benzene prices increased slightly, averaging 5978.57 CNY/ton, but the price difference narrowed [49] Polyester Sector - The PX price continues to decline due to high domestic supply and weak demand, with the average price at 5833.75 CNY/ton, down 142.37 CNY/ton [85] - The report indicates that the polyester filament market is facing a downturn, with prices decreasing and profitability declining [95] - PTA prices are stable with a slight increase, averaging 4869.29 CNY/ton, while the average profit margin is negative [97] Stock Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of June 13, 2025, the stock performance of six major refining companies showed mixed results, with Hengli Petrochemical up 1.40% and Dongfang Shenghong down 2.26% over the past week [123][124] - Over the past month, the stock performance varied significantly, with Dongfang Shenghong down 10.15% and Hengli Petrochemical down 2.75% [123][124]