2025年第24周周报：猪的几个重要指标跟踪-20250615

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Views - The pig sector is experiencing low price fluctuations, with the average price of live pigs at 14.39 CNY/kg as of June 14, remaining stable compared to the previous week. The profitability for self-breeding is approximately 72 CNY per head, down by 53 CNY from the previous week. The price of piglets has reached a three-month low [1][15] - The pet industry is witnessing significant growth driven by consumption upgrades, with domestic brands rising strongly. For instance, Tmall's pet sales exceeded last year's first-day sales within 100 minutes, and 653 brands saw sales double year-on-year. The pet food export volume from January to April 2025 reached 110,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.17% [3][4][17][18] - The poultry sector is facing challenges due to uncertainties in breeding imports, particularly for white chickens, with a 40.66% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates from January to May 2025. The yellow chicken market is expected to benefit from improved consumer demand as supply tightens [5][20][22] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The average price of live pigs is 14.39 CNY/kg, with self-breeding profitability at 72 CNY per head, indicating a significant drop in profitability [1][15] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in average weight for slaughtered pigs, while demand is weakening due to seasonal factors and rising temperatures [19] - The sector is expected to face losses due to strong supply and weak demand, with potential for capacity reduction [19] Pet Sector - The pet industry is experiencing a consumption upgrade, with significant sales growth on platforms like Tmall and Douyin, indicating a shift towards high-value products [3][17] - Pet food exports are growing, with a total export value of 3.26 billion CNY from January to April 2025, reflecting a robust market [4][18] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Lusi Co. [4][18] Poultry Sector - The white chicken breeding sector is facing a 40.66% decline in breeding stock updates due to import uncertainties, while the yellow chicken market is seeing a tightening supply [20][21] - The average price for yellow chickens has fluctuated, with a notable decrease in prices in certain regions [22] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies that can capitalize on breeding opportunities and market recovery, such as Shengnong Development and Yisheng Co. [21][22] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving self-sufficiency in food security, with an emphasis on improving crop yields through advanced breeding strategies [24] - Key recommendations include seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong, as well as agricultural resource companies [24] Feed and Animal Health Sector - The feed sector is recommended for companies like Haida Group, which is expected to see market share growth and sustained performance [25] - The animal health sector is shifting towards new products and markets, with a focus on pet health products and significant growth potential [26]