大能源行业2025年第24周周报：十五五电量宽松电力趋紧氢能试点工作开展-20250615

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the energy sector [3] Core Insights - The energy sector is transitioning from a state of local tightness to a balanced supply-demand situation during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, with coal power utilization hours expected to decline under the dual carbon strategy [5][9] - The growth of coal power generation is closely linked to electricity demand growth and new photovoltaic installations, with projections indicating a significant drop in coal power generation in 2025 due to weak demand and increased solar capacity [13][14] - The hydrogen energy sector is expected to mature as the National Energy Administration initiates pilot projects, promoting the development of hydrogen production, storage, and application [19][22] Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - The electricity supply-demand balance has shifted from tight to balanced, with coal power utilization hours projected to return to 2020 levels under a 4.5% electricity demand growth assumption for 2025 [5][9] - Under a 5% electricity demand growth assumption, coal power utilization hours are expected to decline to over 3,000 hours during the 15th Five-Year Plan [5][9] - The total coal power generation is projected to decline in 2025 but may recover in 2026, with a stable trend expected from 2027 to 2028 [13][14] 2. Hydrogen Energy - The National Energy Administration has launched pilot projects to explore diverse pathways for hydrogen energy development, focusing on the entire hydrogen value chain [19][22] - The pilot projects will cover various aspects, including large-scale hydrogen production, storage, and applications in industries such as refining and power generation [21][22] - The report suggests that the hydrogen industry is likely to accelerate towards maturity, enhancing the economic viability of green hydrogen projects and increasing downstream demand [19][22] 3. Coal - Coal imports have decreased for three consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 17.75% in May 2025, indicating a tightening of supply [5][6] - The report highlights that domestic coal prices have significantly dropped, reducing the price advantage of imported low-calorie coal and exacerbating the price inversion for high-calorie coal [5][6] - The supply elasticity of imported coal has improved, suggesting a continued contraction in coal imports for the remainder of the year [5][6] 4. Recommended Companies - Key recommendations include major hydropower companies such as Guotou Power, Huaneng Hydropower, and Changjiang Power, as well as wind power companies listed in Hong Kong [18] - The report also suggests focusing on quality thermal power companies like Anhui Energy and Shanghai Electric, and traditional power equipment manufacturers like Dongfang Electric [18]