转债周度专题：底仓转债持续缩圈后-20250615

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bank and other financial high - quality bottom - position convertible bonds are continuously shrinking, and medium - large bottom - position convertible bonds may benefit from the capital spill - over trend. It is recommended to select targets based on credit quality, remaining term, and clause games [1][11]. - The A - share market valuation has recovered but is still at a relatively low level in the long term, with a good risk - return ratio. Domestic economic fundamentals and capital flow may gradually resonate. For convertible bonds, be vigilant about valuation callback risks, focus on the game space of downward revisions and strong redemption risks, and pay attention to short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [14]. - Industries worthy of attention include popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises under the China - specific valuation system, and the military industry [15]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special and Outlook 3.1.1. After the Continuous Shrinking of Bottom - Position Convertible Bonds - This week, Nanyin Convertible Bond announced a strong redemption as expected. Since this year, 4 bank convertible bonds have announced early redemptions, and 1 has matured. As of June 13, the scale of bank convertible bonds has decreased to 1519.61 billion yuan, a decrease of about 39 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. There is still 5.7 billion yuan of Hangyin and Nanyin Convertible Bonds that will be converted or redeemed [1][9]. - In the future, 50 billion yuan of Pufa Convertible Bond will mature and delist. It is advisable to select convertible bonds based on credit quality, remaining term, and clause games, and pay attention to convertible bonds with a relatively large remaining scale and a remaining term of less than 2 years among those maturing in the non - downward - revision period in June [11]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - The market fluctuated this week, with an overall weekly decline. The A - share market valuation has recovered but is still at a relatively low level. The export order rebound drove a slight improvement in the May PMI. Domestic economic fundamentals and capital flow may gradually resonate [14]. - For convertible bonds, the issuance pressure is expected to be low. Be vigilant about valuation callback risks, focus on the game space of downward revisions and strong redemption risks, and pay attention to short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [14]. - Industries to focus on include popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises under the China - specific valuation system, and the military industry [15]. 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. The Equity Market Declined, and Cyclical Sectors such as Metals Strengthened - This week, major equity market indices declined. 13 Shenwan industry indices rose, and 18 declined. Industries such as non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains, while food and beverage, household appliances, and building materials led the losses [18][20]. 3.2.2. The Convertible Bond Market Declined, and the Premium Rate per 100 - Yuan Par Value Slightly Decreased - This week, the convertible bond market declined. The average daily trading volume increased to 69.298 billion yuan, with a total weekly trading volume of 346.489 billion yuan [23]. - In terms of industries, 11 industries rose, and 18 declined. Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, non - bank finance, and public utilities led the gains, while communication, media, and machinery and equipment led the losses [25]. - Most individual convertible bonds declined. The top five gainers were Jinling Convertible Bond, Jinji Convertible Bond, Haibo Convertible Bond, Liande Convertible Bond, and Zhite Convertible Bond; the top five losers were Zhengyu Convertible Bond, Huati Convertible Bond, Haomei Convertible Bond, Tianyang Convertible Bond, and Aofei Convertible Bond [26][28]. - The weighted conversion value of the whole market decreased, and the premium rate increased. The premium rate per 100 - yuan par value decreased slightly and is above the 50% quantile since 2017 [35]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuation of equity - biased convertible bonds and balanced convertible bonds declined significantly. The valuation of convertible bonds with a par value of 80 - 90 yuan and 110 - 120 yuan increased, while most other par - value convertible bonds' valuations decreased. The valuation of convertible bonds rated A+ and below decreased, while other ratings increased. The valuation of small - cap convertible bonds decreased, while other scale - graded convertible bonds increased [44]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom [44]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds rated AA+ and above and A and below rose, while others declined. Since 2023, high - rated AAA convertible bonds have performed steadily, and low - rated convertible bonds have shown weaker downside resistance and greater rebound strength [54]. - This week, large - cap convertible bonds rose, while other scale convertible bonds declined. Since 2023, small - cap convertible bonds have recorded a 13.98% return, medium - small - cap convertible bonds 14.10%, medium - cap convertible bonds 9.60%, and large - cap convertible bonds 10.31% [54]. 3.3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Terms 3.3.1. This Week's Primary - Market Issuance Plans - This week, there were no newly listed convertible bonds. Two convertible bonds (Dianhua Convertible Bond and Anke Convertible Bond) announced plans to be issued, and one (Hengshuai Convertible Bond) has been issued but not yet listed. Six convertible bonds passed the first - level approval [4][59]. - Since the beginning of 2023 to June 13, 2025, there have been 90 convertible bonds in the pipeline, with a total scale of 145.842 billion yuan [60]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - As of June 14, 2025, 20 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 7 announced no downward revisions, 1 proposed a downward revision, and 1 announced the result of a downward revision [64]. - Seven convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemptions, 3 announced no early redemptions, and 2 announced early redemptions [67][68]. - As of the end of this week, 3 convertible bonds were still in the put - option declaration period, and 33 were in the company's capital - reduction settlement declaration period [70].