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宏观经济点评:政府债券发行支撑社融
KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-06-15 08:42

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Growth - In May, the social financing scale increased by CNY 2.2894 trillion, up CNY 227.1 billion year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate of 8.7%[4] - New RMB loans in May amounted to CNY 596 billion, a decrease of CNY 223.7 billion year-on-year, indicating insufficient effective demand[4] - The increase in credit in May was CNY 620 billion, which is CNY 330 billion less than the same month last year, reflecting weaker seasonal performance[3] Group 2: Government Bonds and Corporate Financing - Government bond financing in May reached CNY 1.4633 trillion, an increase of CNY 236.7 billion year-on-year, indicating sustained issuance strength[4] - Special refinancing bonds saw a net financing amount of CNY 4.261 billion, with issuance accelerating compared to the previous month[4] - Corporate bonds increased by CNY 121.1 billion year-on-year, as companies took advantage of lower financing costs since April[4] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Economic Indicators - M1 growth rate improved by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3% in May, while M2 growth rate slightly decreased to 7.9%[5] - Fiscal deposits increased by CNY 116.7 billion year-on-year, indicating a potential surplus in government revenue[5] - The overall credit expansion remains reliant on further fiscal support, as indicated by the current financial data[3]