碳酸锂：矿价企稳，产量回升，偏弱震荡，建议反套

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Price Trend: This week, the lithium carbonate futures prices first rose and then declined, with the main contract switching to 2509. The 2507 contract closed at 59,940 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2509 contract closed at 59,800 yuan/ton, down 1,120 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price increased by 450 yuan/ton to 60,650 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Supply is on the rise as some smelting capacities resume production and salt - lake output increases seasonally. Lithium ore prices have stabilized, with the 6% grade lithium concentrate price rising slightly by 3 dollars to 629 dollars/ton. This week, lithium carbonate production was 18,127 tons, a 3.75% increase from last week. In terms of demand, the new - energy vehicle production and sales in May were good, with year - on - year increases of 35% and 36.9% respectively. The domestic "531" rush - to - install phenomenon in the energy - storage sector was obvious in May, but downstream procurement remains cautious. Inventory has increased, with a 0.84% increase in total lithium carbonate inventory this week [2]. - Market Outlook: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly. For the 2507 contract, the price is expected to range between 55,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct reverse spreads in the inter - period trading, and sell - hedging at the upper end of the price range [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Price Differences: The SMM spot - futures basis (2507 contract) strengthened by 950 yuan/ton to 710 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was +270 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2507 - 2509 contract spread was 140 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan/ton week - on - week [1]. - Lithium Industry Chain Spot Prices: Various lithium - related products in the industry chain showed different price changes. For example, the 629 - dollar/ton 6% grade lithium concentrate price increased by 0.48%, and the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.75% to 60,650 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Lithium Ore - Supply and Price: With the resumption of some smelting capacities and the seasonal increase in salt - lake output, overall production has increased significantly. Lithium ore procurement demand is fair, and prices have stabilized. The 6% grade lithium concentrate price rose slightly by 3 dollars to 629 dollars/ton [2]. - Production and Operating Rate: This week, lithium carbonate production was 18,127 tons, a 3.75% increase from last week. The overall smelting operating rate was 52.5%, up from last week [2]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - stream Consumption - Lithium Salt Products - Price and Output: The report presents multiple price and output charts of lithium salts, including battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc. It shows the historical price trends and output changes of these products over different time periods [18][19]. - Inventory and Trade: The total lithium carbonate inventory increased this week, with a 0.84% increase to 133,549 tons. The number of futures warehouse receipts decreased to 32,000 tons, and the cathode material inventory continued to decline [2]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Lithium Batteries and Materials - New - Energy Vehicle and Energy - Storage Market: In May, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 35% and 36.9%. In the energy - storage sector, the domestic "531" rush - to - install phenomenon was obvious in May, with a 413% year - on - year increase in the new - installed capacity [2]. - Production and Operating Rate of Battery Materials: The report provides charts of the monthly production and operating rates of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as the production and installation volume of lithium batteries [23][24].