能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20250615

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weekly Review: The global fuel oil price fluctuated significantly this week. As the geopolitical conflict intensified, the price gradually increased, while the crack spread and monthly spread slightly declined from their highs [4]. - Weekly Outlook: The fuel oil price has been rising since the beginning of the week. Due to the escalating geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel, the prices of crude oil and related oil products have all increased. The core issue affected by this conflict is the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz. If the strait is closed due to the conflict, the fuel oil exports from the entire Middle East will be significantly affected. The fuel oil exports from countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait will be severely restricted. Coupled with the already significantly reduced exports from Iran, 85% of the fuel oil exports from the Middle East will be threatened. Since these countries mainly export high - sulfur fuel oil, the price of Singapore 380 will remain strong in the coming period. In terms of low - sulfur fuel oil, Kuwait, a new low - sulfur fuel oil supplier in the Asia - Pacific region in recent years, may also be affected in its low - sulfur component exports due to this geopolitical conflict. Meanwhile, the quantity of low - sulfur fuel oil spot arriving in Singapore from Brazil has decreased month - on - month. The spot supply in the low - sulfur market will continue to be tight, which will have a positive impact on the price. Therefore, in the near future, attention can be paid to the long positions in fuel oil crack spreads and near - month spreads, especially for high - sulfur fuel oil, which is more affected [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply - Refinery Operation: The report presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, including overall Chinese refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries, with data from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: The report shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU units, hydrocracking units, FCC units, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume: It presents the monthly fuel oil production in China from 2018 - 2025, the monthly low - sulfur fuel oil production of Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2025, and the monthly fuel oil commodity volume in China from 2021 - 2024 [18]. 3.2 Demand - Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data: The report provides data on the monthly fuel oil bunker sales in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, and the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2020 - 2025 [21]. 3.3 Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: It shows the Singapore heavy oil inventory from 2018 - 2025, the European ARA fuel oil inventory from 2018 - 2025, the Fujairah heavy distillate inventory from 2018 - 2025, and the US residual fuel oil inventory from 2018 - 2025 [24][26][27]. 3.4 Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Price: The report presents the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah from 2018 - 2025 [31][32][33][34]. - European Regional Spot FOB Price: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo in the New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in the USAC from 2018 - 2025 [41][42]. - US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Price: Although the data is incomplete, it is about the fuel oil spot price in the US [43]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: It includes the prices of high - sulfur swaps and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, low - sulfur fuel oil swaps and 380 bunker fuel swaps in Singapore, and the prices of FU and LU contracts [44][47][50]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: It shows the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore [55][56]. - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread: The report presents the high - sulfur and low - sulfur crack spreads in Singapore, the 3.5% and 1% crack spreads in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 [59][60][62]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread: It shows the M1 - M2 and M2 - M3 spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [66][67]. 3.5 Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: The report provides the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [71][73][74]. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes by region [76]. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes by region [78].