Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating in a narrow range. The significant losses of secondary lead smelters limit the downside of prices, while weak replacement consumption restricts the short - term upward momentum. In the medium to long term, there is a relatively good risk - reward ratio for long positions, and subsequent consumption growth is expected to provide support. Attention should be paid to the mid - year sales push in June and the consumption performance during the peak season in the third quarter [5] Summary by Directory Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract last week was 16,945 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.98%. The closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,920 yuan, with a decline of 0.15%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead3 last week was 1,960.5 dollars, with a decline of 0.68% [6] - Spread: The LME lead spot premium changed from - 26.98 dollars to - 25.93 dollars, an increase of 1.05 dollars. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract changed from - 45 yuan to - 35 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan [6] - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) lead warehouse receipts inventory increased by 2,430 tons to 44,229 tons, and the total SHFE lead inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 49,811 tons. The social inventory increased by 800 tons to 54,700 tons. The LME lead inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 264,975 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio increased from 16% to 29.61% [6] - Transaction and Position: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 32,714 lots, an increase of 1,861 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 43,604 lots, a decrease of 6,371 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead3 last Friday was 5,109 lots, an increase of 539 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 147,029 lots, a decrease of 122 lots [6] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - Lead Concentrate: The import volume of lead concentrate shows a certain trend over different years. The domestic production of lead concentrate also has its own pattern. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang fluctuates. The processing fees of imported and domestic lead concentrates remain stable, and the profits of lead concentrate smelting have changed [25][26] - Waste Battery: The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries and waste battery shells have changed. The cost, profit and loss of secondary lead are affected by waste battery prices, and currently, secondary lead is in a state of significant losses [29] - Primary Lead: The production of primary lead shows a certain trend over different years, and the weekly operating rate also fluctuates. The production of by - products such as silver also has corresponding changes [27][28] - Secondary Lead: The production of secondary lead shows a certain trend over different years, and the operating rate is currently at a low level. The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises also changes [27][29] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, End - User) - Lead - Acid Battery: The export volume of lead - acid batteries shows a certain trend over different years. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises fluctuates, and the finished product inventory days of enterprises and dealers also change [33] - End - User: The production of automobiles and motorcycles shows a certain trend over different years, and the actual consumption of lead also has corresponding changes [35]
铅产业链周度报告-20250615