Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation before new weather problems occur in US cotton - producing areas or significant changes happen to US trade agreements. The USDA's June supply - demand report provides support, but it still lacks upward drivers due to uncertain US tariff policies and good weather for new US cotton crops [18]. - Domestic cotton futures are in a stage with unclear fundamental drivers, and their trends follow the overall financial market sentiment. Concerns about tightening domestic cotton inventories support spot prices and basis, but the deteriorating downstream business restricts the upward momentum of cotton futures. It is necessary to monitor whether the inventory reduction speed slows down. Currently, cotton futures are expected to be in an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the weather in Xinjiang and external market impacts [1][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data | Futures | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Change % | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - continuous | 68.15 | 68.54 | 67.02 | 67.90 | - 0.24 | - 0.35 | 158748 | 26765 | 147821 | 36029 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous | 13355 | 13600 | 13345 | 13495 | 135 | 1.01 | 1014870 | 336485 | 532642 | 1992 | | Cotton Yarn Main - continuous | 19615 | 19860 | 19605 | 19715 | 85 | 0.43 | 33060 | 13379 | 19858 | 7266 | [4] 2. Fundamentals 2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton Fluctuation: ICE cotton maintained an oscillatory trend this week. In the first half - week, it declined due to good weather in US cotton - producing areas and concerns about US cotton export prospects. After the USDA released its monthly supply - demand report on Thursday, it rebounded as the USDA raised the export forecast for the 2024/25 US cotton season and lowered the production and inventory forecasts for the 2025/26 season [1][4]. - USDA June Supply - Demand Report: - US Cotton Balance Sheet: The USDA raised the 2024/25 US cotton export by 400,000 bales to 11.5 million bales, causing the ending inventory in 2024/25 to drop by 400,000 bales to 4.4 million bales. It also cut the 2025/26 US cotton production by 500,000 bales to 14 million bales, leading to a 900,000 - bale decrease in ending inventory to 4.3 million bales [5]. - Global Cotton Balance Sheet: The USDA cut the 2024/25 global ending cotton inventory by 1.11 million bales, mainly due to reduced production in India and Central Asia. It also cut the 2025/26 global cotton production by 820,000 bales and consumption by 320,000 bales [5]. - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: As of the week ending June 5, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts decreased by 45% week - on - week and 51% compared to the four - week average. The 2025/26 US upland cotton cumulative contracts decreased by 30% year - on - year. The 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments decreased by 25% week - on - week and 19% compared to the four - week average. The total sales volume of 2024/25 US upland and Pima cotton accounted for 109% of the annual forecasted exports, and the cumulative export shipments accounted for 82% of the total annual contracts [6]. - Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries: - India: Monsoon stagnation has affected sowing progress. Domestic yarn mills have weak export demand. The Cotton Corporation of India holds 6800,000 bales of cotton inventory. Cotton imports in March decreased by 30% from February but were higher than last year. The cumulative imports in the first eight months of this season reached 473,000 tons [8]. - Brazil: May cotton exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The cumulative exports from July to May were higher than the same period in the 2023/24 season. On June 11, the Esalq spot price index was about 78.60 cents per pound [9]. - Pakistan: New cotton on the market is pressuring domestic prices. The production is likely to be between 6.5 million and 7.5 million bales. New seed cotton prices are around 8400 - 8800 rupees per 40 kg. A sales tax policy adjustment has different impacts on different market players [10]. - Bangladesh: May garment exports were strong. After Eid al - Fitr, spinning and weaving enterprises gradually resumed work. The cumulative export value in the current fiscal year (July/May) increased by 10% compared to the same period in the 2023/24 fiscal year [10]. - Australia: April cotton exports decreased to the lowest monthly level since April 2022. The cumulative exports in the first nine months of this season were lower than the same periods in the past two years [11]. - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates: As of the week ending June 13, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 74%, 65%, and 58% respectively [11]. 2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Spot and Basis: From June 13, domestic cotton futures first rose and then fell, while spot prices increased steadily, and the basis shifted upward. Spot trading was weaker than last week, with some textile enterprises making rigid - demand purchases [12]. - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of June 13, the total number of No. 1 cotton registered and forecasted warehouse receipts was 11,076, equivalent to 465,200 tons. Among them, there were 10,257 registered warehouse receipts for Xinjiang cotton and 496 for domestic cotton [12]. - Downstream Market: - Cotton Yarn Market: Affected by rising raw material prices, some textile enterprises raised their quotes at the beginning of the week, but trading was still light. Profits continued to deteriorate, and inventories accumulated. The national startup rate increased slightly, mainly due to the resumption of work in Xinjiang after the Eid al - Adha festival [13][14]. - Cotton Fabric Market: Demand remained weak, and the off - season atmosphere was obvious. The startup rate was basically flat. Orders were scarce, and inventories increased. Mills continued to operate at a loss and maintained a "use - as - you - go" procurement strategy [14]. 3. Basic Data Charts The report includes charts on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, textile enterprises' cotton inventory, weaving enterprises' yarn inventory, spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory, cotton fabric enterprises' cotton fabric inventory, yarn - spinning enterprises' startup rate, cotton - fabric enterprises' startup rate, cotton yarn profit, cotton fabric profit, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [15][16][17]. 4. Operation Suggestions ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and domestic cotton futures are expected to be in an oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the weather in Xinjiang and external market impacts [18].
棉花：商业库存下降快支撑棉价
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-15 09:20