金银周报-20250615

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the price of London gold rose by 2.86%, while London silver fell by -0.3%. The gold-silver ratio increased from 91.4 to 95.2, the 10-year TIPS fell to 2.13%, the 10-year nominal interest rate rose to 4.41% (2-year 3.96%), and the US dollar index was 98.1 [3]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel this week was the main disturbance in the precious metals market. The report maintains its view on gold, stating that as an asset with a long - term upward trend, once there is a new driver, long - term funds are more likely to re - enter the gold market and raise the bottom support [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Positions) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spreads - For gold, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to -19.25 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -20 US dollars per ounce [8][9]. - For silver, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 widened again to -0.079 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was -0.095 US dollars per ounce [8][12]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spreads - This week, the gold spot - futures price spread was -3.5 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - This week, the silver spot - futures price spread was 2 yuan per gram, also at the lower end of the historical range [18][19]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spreads - This week, the gold monthly spread was 4.22 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [22]. - This week, the silver monthly spread was 36 yuan per kilogram, at the lower end of the historical range [26]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Costs - For gold, the total cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling SHFE gold was 11.38 yuan per gram; the total cost of buying SHFE gold December contract and selling June contract was 15.45 yuan per gram [29][30]. - For silver, the total cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling SHFE silver was 133.26 yuan per kilogram; the total cost of buying SHFE silver December contract and selling June contract was -95.90 yuan per kilogram [31][32]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Directions of SGE Spot Gold and Silver - This week, the SGE gold deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power; the silver deferred fee was mainly paid from shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power [33]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratios - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.33 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 54.3%. The COMEX silver inventory increased by 3.74 million ounces to 494.72 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.5%. The gold futures inventory increased by 330 tons, and the silver futures inventory increased by 92.1 tons to 1210 tons [35][37][39]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions - This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold slightly increased, and the non - commercial net long position of silver also slightly increased [41]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 4.85 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 56.55 tons [46][48]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio fell from 91.4 to 95.2 [50]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - This week, the 1M gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1M silver lease rate was 4.8% [53]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [58]. 3.2.2 Other Macroeconomic Indicators - The report also presented data on inflation, retail sales, non - farm employment, industrial manufacturing cycles, financial conditions, economic surprise indices, inflation surprise indices, and the Fed's interest rate cut probability, but no specific core views were summarized for these aspects in the text [63][66][71][74][75].