铸造铝合金产业链周报-20250615

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - In the short - term fundamental aspect, the casting aluminum alloy market is in a stage of weak supply and demand. As the off - season deepens, negative demand feedback appears. Casting aluminum alloy enterprises reduce their production due to sales pressure, leading to a decrease in demand for scrap aluminum, a rise in the refined - scrap price difference, and lower costs. In the short term, the price of casting aluminum alloy is expected to face pressure during the off - season, with a bearish outlook [6]. - Considering historical seasonality, the monthly structure is likely to show a Back pattern in the third quarter. At the initial listing stage, market participants can layout inter - period long - spread positions. After the near - end structure becomes Back, they can also consider entering inter - period long - spread positions at low prices and expect to realize profits during the peak consumption season [6]. - Usually, when the ADC12 - A00 price difference converges, one can enter a short - ADC12 and long - A00 position. Currently, the profit - loss ratio of this position is not good. In the third quarter, as automobile production increases, the demand for ADC12 will be positively affected, and one can pre - arrange a long - ADC12 and short - A00 position [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Supply - Side: Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history [9]. - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining [11]. - The refined - scrap price difference is showing a trend of recovery [15]. Supply - Side: Recycled Aluminum - The price of casting aluminum alloy has a short - term small increase, and the ADC12 - A00 price difference has significantly converged [19]. - The regional price difference of casting aluminum alloy shows that the southwest region is relatively weak and has certain seasonal patterns [24]. - The operating rate of casting aluminum alloy has been slightly adjusted downward, and the monthly operating rate is at a historical low [29]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, the average profit is in a loss state [31]. - The obvious and hidden inventories of casting alloys are increasing [33]. - The import window of casting aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [34]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data show certain trends, with specific production and inventory distribution in different regions [38][40]. Demand - Side: Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel - powered vehicles has declined, which has a negative impact on die - casting consumption [45].