能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20250615

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Bottle Chip (PR): Cost fluctuations are increasing, with prices oscillating at high levels and pressure accumulating. There is a weak fundamental support, with potential for short - term cost increases due to the Iran - Israel conflict. There are expectations of production cuts, and the processing fee is at a low level. Suggestions include going long on the processing fee around 350 and conducting positive spreads on the month - difference during cost fluctuations [9][10]. - Staple Fiber (PF): Cost fluctuations are increasing, with prices oscillating at high levels. Both domestic and external demand are weakening, and there is a risk of concentrated production cuts if the processing fee deteriorates further. The medium - term outlook is weak [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Bottle Chip (PR) - Valuation and Profit - Aggregation cost has slightly decreased to around 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. Spot processing fees for bottle chips have slightly recovered, ranging from 300 - 330 yuan/ton. Export profits are compressed, but the internal - external price difference remains high [50]. - Fundamental Operation - Factory and social inventories are accumulating simultaneously. The factory operating rate is 88.8%, and the total inventory is around 18 days. The impact of the Iran - Israel conflict on costs will continue, and costs may rise in the short term with increased volatility. Freight rates are high, which may lead to a decline in exports in June - July [10]. - Downstream demand is relatively stable. Beverage enterprises' operating rates range from 80 - 95%, edible oil factories' average operating rate is around 6 - 80%, and the operating rate of sheet materials in East China is around 6 - 80% and 4 - 60% in South China [65]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The entire society's inventory is in a trend of accumulation. To achieve a balanced supply - demand situation in May, leading factories need to cut production by at least 10%, and export shipments should exceed 600,000 tons [94][95]. Staple Fiber (PF) - Valuation - The basis of PF has remained stable and oscillating, and the futures - spot structure maintains a backwardation structure. The disk processing fee has been operating at a low level and rebounded slightly this week [100][107]. - Fundamental Operation - The operating rate of staple fiber factories is at a high level, with the average load of direct - spinning staple fiber at 92.1% and the operating rate of spinning - grade direct - spinning staple fiber at 92.2%. Some downstream factories have started to reduce their loads, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The 1.4D equity inventory is 11 days, and the physical inventory is 19 days [11][114]. - The demand from downstream yarn mills has been stable, but the yarn inventory has increased, and the profit of polyester yarn is generally better than that of last year [135][137][139].