Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is expected to remain in a state of oscillatory consolidation and weak operation in the near term. The cost - side foreign market quotations are stable, and the new round of the outer - market price of Brazilian eucalyptus pulp "Bird" remains unchanged. The increase in Brazilian eucalyptus pulp exports to China in May may lead to a significant increase in arrivals around July. The downstream demand remains weak, and the port inventory is difficult to deplete at a high level, which restricts the upward space of pulp prices. However, due to the low - level pulp futures prices in recent years, traders' sentiment of reluctance to sell at low prices is strong, so the subsequent deep - decline space is also limited [77]. Summary by Directory Industry News - As of June 12, 2025, the inventory of pulp in Changshu Port was 581,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons (5.3%); in Qingdao Port, it was 1.342 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,000 tons (1.2%); in Gaolan Port, it was 152,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons (3.8%). The total inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2.185 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons (1.3%) [6]. - Rizhao Huatai Paper Co., Ltd. has an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of fluff pulp, and the 500,000 - ton fluff pulp project is a future planning project and has not started construction yet [6]. - Finnpulp's Joutseno NBSK pulp mill will be shut down temporarily starting from June 9 to adjust inventory levels and match production with low orders in Asia [6]. Market Data Market Trends - The price of the main pulp futures contract first rose and then fell. Some spot traders were reluctant to sell at low prices. Constrained by weak demand, there were few actual transactions for high - priced goods. The price of softwood pulp fluctuated within a range during the week [36]. Basis and Spread - On June 13, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 858 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.38% and a year - on - year increase of 125.79%; the basis of Russian Needle was 58 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17.14% and a year - on - year increase of 182.86%; the spread between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 800 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 77.78% [14]. - On June 13, 2025, the 07 - 09 spread was 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 21.43%; the 07 - 11 spread was 116 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.75% [19]. Fundamental Data Price - The difference between softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On June 13, 2025, the spread between Silver Star and Goldfish was 2,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 207.69%; the spread between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% and a year - on - year increase of 500% [27]. - The import profit of Silver Star was positive recently but continued to decline this week. There was no quotation for eucalyptus pulp "Star" in June, and the supply is expected to partially resume in July [32]. - On June 13, 2025, the prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Wood, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle were 6,100 yuan/ton, 6,200 yuan/ton, 6,350 yuan/ton, 6,200 yuan/ton, and 5,300 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 0.81%, 0.80%, 0.78%, 0.80%, and 0.93% [34]. - Traders of imported eucalyptus pulp were under great cost pressure and were reluctant to sell at low prices. Some eucalyptus pulp brands' quotations increased slightly, but the downstream market's inquiry was only for low - price products, and the trading rhythm was slow, which limited the price rebound space [40]. - On June 13, 2025, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Bird, and Broadleaf were 4,100 yuan/ton, with month - on - month changes of - 0.49%, 0.00%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively [41]. - On June 13, 2025, the prices of Venus and Kunhe were 5,000 yuan/ton and 3,900 yuan/ton respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.91% for Venus and no change for Kunhe [45]. Supply - In April 2025, the European port inventory decreased month - on - month, and the global pulp out - port volume decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The European port inventory was 1.352 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.77% and a year - on - year increase of 16.75%; the global pulp out - port volume was 4.077 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.89% [48][49]. - In April 2025, the pulp import volume decreased to varying degrees. The import volume of softwood pulp decreased by 5.03% month - on - month, and that of eucalyptus pulp decreased by 18.41% month - on - month [51]. Demand - On June 13, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 73.41%, 63.40%, 56.37%, and 56.18% respectively. The capacity utilization rate of household tissue paper increased slightly due to the "618" promotion, while that of other paper types decreased or remained at a low level [54]. - The market price of white cardboard remained stable. The supply was loose, and the terminal consumption was weak. The downstream customers' enthusiasm for stocking decreased, and they mainly received previous orders and replenished stocks on a just - in - time basis [56]. - The market price of household tissue paper was slightly adjusted. Some paper mills that had shut down for maintenance had not resumed production. The market was quiet, and traders were waiting and watching. Some regions' sales increased due to the "618" promotion, and the paper mills' operating rates increased slightly [60]. - The average price of coated paper enterprises decreased. The supply pressure was controllable, but the consumption demand was weak, and the industry was in a situation of weak supply and demand [60]. Inventory - On June 13, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 238,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 49.96%; the warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 16,300 tons, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 51.14% [65]. - The port inventory was at a high level within the year, and the inventory of mainstream ports in China showed an increasing trend this period. The inventory in Qingdao Port and Changshu Port increased, while that in Gaolan Port decreased [71]. Operation Suggestions - The pulp market is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with a weak operation trend. The cost - side foreign market quotations are stable, and the increase in Brazilian eucalyptus pulp exports to China in May may lead to more arrivals around July. The downstream demand is weak, and the port inventory is difficult to deplete at a high level, which restricts the upward space of pulp prices. However, due to traders' reluctance to sell at low prices, the subsequent deep - decline space is also limited [77].
能源化工纸浆周度报告-20250615
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-15 09:52