生猪：降重路径改变，等待现货印证

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The live pig spot price will fluctuate and adjust. The group's adjustment of slaughter volume has a significant impact on the price during the off - season. Although the downstream demand is weak and difficult to bear the supply pressure, the retail end has a sentiment of hoarding, the secondary fattening group actively replenishes stocks, and the policy of continuous state reserve purchases is expected, so the spot price turns stronger again [3]. - In the futures market, the LH2509 contract price is expected to have a long - term de - stocking process. Pay attention to the mid - line spread structure switching to the reverse spread market and set stop - profit and stop - loss points. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (6.9 - 6.15) - Spot Market: The live pig price fluctuated and adjusted. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 39.1 yuan/kg (last week: 41.6 yuan/kg), the live pig price in Henan this week was 14.08 yuan/kg (last week: 14 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,621 yuan/head (last week: 1,631 yuan/head). The average national slaughter weight was 125.76KG (last week: 126KG), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The supply side has limited incremental amplitude from groups, and retail farmers still have a sentiment of hoarding. The post - holiday market demand shows a seasonal decline, and the rising temperature further suppresses the demand increment, while the demand for secondary fattening replenishment is strong [1]. - Futures Market: The live pig futures price showed a strong - side fluctuation. The highest price of the LH2509 contract this week was 13,840 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,790 yuan/ton (last week: 13,460 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 290 yuan/ton (last week: 540 yuan/ton) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (6.16 - 6.22) - Spot Market: The live pig spot price will fluctuate and adjust. The group's slaughter adjustment has a great impact on the price during the off - season. Although the downstream demand is weak, the retail end has a hoarding sentiment, the secondary fattening group actively replenishes stocks, and the policy of continuous state reserve purchases is expected, so the price turns stronger again. The supply has accelerated inventory accumulation, and the group's slaughter progress is in line with the plan. The incremental slaughter in the second quarter is limited, and the incremental slaughter in the third quarter will be more obvious. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream support may be limited. The policy of secondary fattening sales has tightened, and the active incremental inventory accumulation drive is limited, but the state reserve purchase policy provides support [3]. - Futures Market: The LH2509 contract price has a long - term de - stocking process. Pay attention to the mid - line spread structure switching to the reverse spread market and set stop - profit and stop - loss points. The short - term support level is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - Basis and Monthly Spread: This week's basis was 290 yuan/ton; the LH2507 - LH2509 monthly spread was - 495 yuan/ton [9]. - Supply: This week's average weight was 125.76KG (last week: 126KG). In April, the pork output was 5.268 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7%; the pork import volume was 805,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.8% [12].