工业硅：上游继续复产，空配思路为主，多晶硅：关注下周仓单注册信息，反弹后空配

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon maintains an oversupply pattern, with the disk still having a downward driving force, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 6,800 - 7,300 yuan/ton next week [6][7]. - Polysilicon also follows the idea of shorting on rallies. The spot price is expected to continue falling after the SNEC meeting this week, and the disk is expected to be in the range of 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton next week [7]. - It is recommended to continue holding the PS2507/PS2508 inter - period reverse spread strategy and choose the opportunity to take profit by paying attention to the warehouse receipt registration situation. It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon factories adopt the selling hedging strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses of industrial silicon from May 23, 2025, to June 13, 2025, are provided, including different grades such as Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 [10]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: Factories in Southwest and Northwest regions are continuously resuming production, providing supply increments. Xinjiang factories have the feasibility of starting production after the electricity price cut, and there is an expectation of continued resumption to near - full operation. The entry of the Southwest region into the wet season also has a driving force for resumption [3]. - Inventory: This week, the social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 3,200 tons. The overall industry inventory decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 11,000 tons compared with last week [3]. 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The weekly output has a marginal increase in the short term. It is expected that the production schedule in June will be 105,000 tons, an increase compared with May. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers has started to accumulate, and the upstream inventory pressure has increased [4]. - Demand: Terminal demand has declined, leading to an expectation of a downward adjustment in silicon wafer production schedules. After the "531" rush - installation ended, the demand declined, and the silicon wafer production schedules from May to June continued to show a monthly downward trend. The silicon wafer price has continued to fall, and the expected downward adjustment in production schedules has deepened [5]. 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Organic Silicon - Supply: This week, the weekly output of organic silicon decreased, and the subsequent resumption space of organic silicon enterprises is not large, and the marginal demand for industrial silicon has decreased [4]. - Demand: The terminal of organic silicon has not improved, and the consumption boost is limited [4]. 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Entering June - July, it is the off - season for aluminum alloy consumption, with overall rigid - demand orders, and the actual trading volume has not increased significantly [4].