Guohai Securities·2025-06-15 10:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of thermal coal is tightening in major production areas, with expectations for demand to rebound during the peak season [1][4] - The report highlights a stable port coal price of 609 RMB/ton as of June 13, 2025, with a decrease in production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region by 2.48 percentage points due to frequent safety and environmental inspections [4][13] - The report emphasizes the resilience of high-calorific imported coal prices, while low-calorific coal has seen a slight recovery in cost-effectiveness [4][13] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Port inventory continues to decrease, with a week-on-week decline of 64.10 thousand tons in northern ports [30] - Daily coal consumption in coastal and inland power plants shows mixed trends, with coastal consumption increasing by 3.7 thousand tons and inland decreasing by 7.6 thousand tons [22][30] - The report anticipates a reduction in hydropower generation due to increased outflow from the Three Gorges Dam, which may lead to a recovery in thermal power demand [13][30] Coking Coal - Supply of coking coal has contracted, with a week-on-week decrease in production capacity utilization by 0.86 percentage points [5][40] - Despite a slight decrease in supply, demand remains weak, leading to an increase in inventory levels at coking coal production enterprises by 16.81 thousand tons [6][40] - The report indicates that coking coal prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [6][41] Coking Coke - Coking coke prices have undergone three rounds of reductions, impacting profit margins for coking enterprises [51] - The report notes a decrease in production rates at coking plants, with a utilization rate of 75.77% [51][56] - Coking coke inventory continues to rise, although the rate of increase has slowed [51][66] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report identifies key companies to watch, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, with a focus on their strong cash flow and high asset quality [7][8] - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E for various companies, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [8]