铁矿石周度观点-20250615

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The macro - drive of iron ore is wavering, and the price is expected to oscillate repeatedly. The fundamentals of iron ore are showing signs of changing from tight to loose, but the relatively high downstream开工 rate resists price decline. Considering the multi - faceted potential political events at the macro - level, the iron ore price may continue the range - bound trend in the short term [3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 09 contract fluctuated narrowly this week, closing at 703.0 yuan/ton. The position was 696,000 lots, a decrease of 29,000 lots. The average daily trading volume was 344,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 49,000 lots [7] Spot Price Performance - Spot prices continued to be weak, with medium - grade ores experiencing larger declines. For example, the price of PB powder decreased by 11 yuan/ton from last week [11] Iron Ore Supply Mainstream Mines - Australian shipments continued to rise. BHP and Fortescue had strong momentum to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year, both reaching year - on - year highs, strengthening the expectation of loose supply. Freight rates showed some differentiation [5][16] Non - mainstream Mines - The iron ore shipments from Peru have not fully recovered [20] Domestic Mines - Previously, production activities in the southwest region were restricted due to anti - corruption inspections. Recently, the开工 rate in North China also decreased due to supervision and inspections [27] Iron Ore Demand Downstream - The production of five major steel products and the port ore clearance volume declined steeply recently. The pig iron output continued to decline month - on - month, but the absolute level remained relatively high [33] Scrap Steel Substitution Effect - The arrival of scrap steel was relatively neutral, and the scrap - iron price difference continued to widen, reaching a new stage high [34] Iron Ore Inventory - The inflection point of inventory accumulation has emerged [38][40] Downstream Profits - The prices of coking coal and coke rebounded, leading to a decline in downstream profits [44] Spot Category Spreads - The spread between medium - and low - grade ores (PB - Super Special) continued to narrow [46] Futures Monthly Spreads - Due to the downward - revised supply - demand expectation in the second half of the year, the near - month contract weakened, and the 9 - 1 spread narrowed by 5.5 yuan/ton week - on - week to 30.5 yuan/ton [50] Basis Performance - As the fundamentals weakened in reality, the spot price made up for the decline, and the basis converged [53]