地方债周度跟踪：发行继续降速，10Y和30Y减国债利差小幅收窄-20250615

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This period's local bond issuance and net financing decreased compared to the previous period, and it is expected that both the issuance and net financing of local bonds will increase in the next period. The current period (2025.06.09 - 2025.06.15) saw a total local bond issuance/net financing of 1077.86 billion yuan/-430.12 billion yuan (previous period was 1095.95 billion yuan/507.51 billion yuan), and the next period (2025.06.16 - 2025.06.22) is expected to have an issuance/net financing of 2617.53 billion yuan/1242.66 billion yuan [3]. - The issuance of new local bonds slowed down this period, and it is expected to speed up slightly in the next period. As of June 13, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 45.1% and 35.2% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 48.5% and 36.2%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 40.5%/30.3% and 42.5%/33.4%, and in 2023 it was 52.1%/48.3% and 56.1%/52.2% [3]. - The planned issuance scale of local bonds in June 2025 is 10137 billion yuan in total, with new special bonds amounting to 5678 billion yuan. As of June 13, 2025, 27 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 10137 billion yuan for local bonds in June 2025, with new special bonds at 5678 billion yuan. The issuance in the same regions in the previous year was 4924 billion yuan and 2149 billion yuan respectively, and the national issuance in the previous year was 6714 billion yuan and 3327 billion yuan respectively [3]. - This period saw the issuance of 15 billion yuan in special new special bonds and 267 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts. As of June 13, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 2454 billion yuan (15 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts reached 16835 billion yuan (267 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 84.2%. 21 regions including Zhejiang have completed all issuances (no new regions this period) [3]. - This period saw a narrowing of the spread between 10Y and 30Y local bonds and treasury bonds, and a week - on - week increase in the weekly turnover rate. As of June 13, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds were 19.25BP and 23.15BP respectively, narrowing by 2.28BP and 0.25BP compared to June 6, 2025 (21.53BP and 23.40BP on June 6, 2025), and were at the 47.80% and 89.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local bonds this period was 1.15%, up from 0.69% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps were better than the national average [3]. - Currently, local bonds have both allocation and trading value. Taking 10 - year local bonds as an anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP. For institutions such as bank self - operations, insurance, and securities firm self - operations, local bonds have certain allocation value, and it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of local bonds with a term of 7 years and above, especially the 10/15/30 - year terms. For institutions such as public funds, local bonds still have trading value, and investment opportunities in local bonds can be seized at an appropriate time. It is recommended to focus on the participation opportunities of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year (with considerable riding income and good trading activity) and 20 - 30 - year (high absolute coupon and high trading activity) local bonds, and specifically select bonds in regions with high valuation cost - effectiveness and good liquidity [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period's local bond issuance volume decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - This period's local bond issuance decreased compared to the previous period, and the next period's issuance is expected to increase. The total issuance this period was 1077.86 billion yuan (previous period was 1095.95 billion yuan), and the next period's forecast issuance is 2617.53 billion yuan [3][11]. - The weighted issuance term of local bonds this period was 13.35 years, shorter than the previous period's 14.27 years [3][12]. - As of June 13, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 45.1% and 35.2% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 48.5% and 36.2%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 40.5%/30.3% and 42.5%/33.4%, and in 2023 it was 52.1%/48.3% and 56.1%/52.2% [3][15][17]. - As of June 13, 2025, 27 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 10137 billion yuan for local bonds in June 2025, with new special bonds at 5678 billion yuan. The issuance in the same regions in the previous year was 4924 billion yuan and 2149 billion yuan respectively, and the national issuance in the previous year was 6714 billion yuan and 3327 billion yuan respectively [3][23]. - As of June 13, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds reached 2454 billion yuan (15 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts reached 16835 billion yuan (267 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 84.2%. 21 regions including Zhejiang have completed all issuances (no new regions this period) [3][21]. 3.2 This period's 10Y and 30Y local bond spreads over treasury bonds both narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased month - on - month - As of June 13, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds were 19.25BP and 23.15BP respectively, narrowing by 2.28BP and 0.25BP compared to June 6, 2025 (21.53BP and 23.40BP on June 6, 2025), and were at the 47.80% and 89.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [3][25][30]. - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds this period was 1.15%, up from 0.69% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps were better than the national average [3][36].