财信证券宏观策略周报（6.16-6.20）：中东局势快速升级，关注原油和贵金属等方向-20250615

Strategy Overview - The report highlights the rapid escalation of the Middle East situation, emphasizing the need to focus on oil and precious metals as potential investment directions [6][28]. - It suggests that the A-share index may enter a period of volatility from late June to late July, with the market needing further momentum to move upward [6][28]. Market Performance - During the week of June 9-13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% to close at 3,377 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.60% to 10,122.11 points [10][19]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased by 13.09% compared to the previous week, reaching 13,392.35 billion yuan [10][19]. - The report notes that the prices of ICE light sweet crude oil rose by 14.20%, and COMEX gold increased by 3.17% during the same period [10][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a "barbell strategy" focusing on geopolitical conflict directions, precious metals, high-dividend stocks, and technology growth represented by AI [28][29]. - It suggests that the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East may lead to short-term performance in sectors such as oil, military, nuclear pollution prevention, and shipping [28]. - The report indicates that central banks have been increasing gold reserves, with China's gold reserves reaching 7,383 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons) as of the end of May, marking a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces (approximately 1.86 tons) [28][29]. Sector Analysis - The report identifies that sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and agriculture have shown strong performance amid rising geopolitical risks [19][20]. - It highlights that the small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000 index have a high price-to-earnings ratio of 136.44 times, indicating accumulated risks in this segment [6][28]. - The report also notes that the high-dividend sector remains attractive for investment, particularly in banking, coal, public utilities, and transportation [28].