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宏观量化经济指数周报:工业生产淡季不弱,“抢出口”有所放缓-20250615
Soochow Securities·2025-06-15 10:33

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.18%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for June is 50.18%, down 0.05 percentage points from May, and the demand index remains flat at 49.93%[7] - The ELI index is at -1.06%, down 0.15 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[11] Industrial Production - Major industries' operating rates in June show a seasonal decline, but overall performance is better than the same period last year[7] - The operating rate for PTA is recorded at 83.25%, up 4.62 percentage points from the previous week, and the steel furnace operating rate is at 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points[15] Exports - June exports are expected to show a slight decline, with key port cargo throughput down 7.95% week-on-week[32] - South Korea's export growth for the first ten days of June is at 5.4%, a significant improvement compared to May[32] Consumption - Weekly average sales of passenger cars are recorded at 42,835 units, a year-on-year increase of 6,825 units, but a month-on-month decrease of 12%[22] - The consumer price index for textiles shows a slight increase, with the Keqiao textile price index at 105.08 points, up 0.02 points from last week[22] Investment - The construction material prices continue to decline, with ordinary Portland cement priced at 302.20 yuan/ton, down 5.90 yuan from the previous week[26] - The land supply area in 100 major cities decreased by 20.84% week-on-week, while the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 11.41%[26] Inflation - The average wholesale price of pork is at 20.33 yuan/kg, down 0.30 yuan from last week, while Brent crude oil prices increased to $69.45 per barrel, up $4.07[38]