地缘风险剧烈上升，美元短期走强

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite has declined. Stock markets mostly fell, bond yields mostly declined, and the US Treasury yield dropped to 4.4%. The US dollar index fell, non - US currencies mostly appreciated, gold and oil prices rose, and the VIX index rebounded. The short - term market focus has shifted to geopolitical risks, and the stock market lacks upward momentum and has a correction risk. Inflation in the US is expected to face upward pressure in the second half of the year, and the Fed is expected to continue to pause rate cuts in the June meeting [1][2][9] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declined. Stock markets mostly fell, bond yields mostly declined, and the US Treasury yield dropped to 4.4%. The US dollar index fell 1.01% to 98.2, non - US currencies mostly appreciated, the offshore RMB slightly declined, the euro rose 1.32%, the pound rose 0.31%, the yen rose 0.54%, the Swiss franc rose 1.33%, the Canadian dollar, Thai baht, and Brazilian real closed up, while the South African rand, South Korean won, Australian dollar, and Malaysian ringgit closed down. Gold prices rose 3.7% to $3432 per ounce, the VIX index rebounded to 20.8, the spot commodity index closed down, and Brent crude oil rose 10.3% to $75.2 per barrel [1][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market: Most Global Stock Markets Fell, and US and Chinese A - Shares Closed Down - Global stock markets mostly fell. The S&P 500 index fell 0.39%, most euro - zone stock markets closed down, emerging - market stock markets showed mixed performance, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.25%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.42%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.25%. The trade issue is in a缓和 state in the short term. The Israel - Iran conflict has shifted the market focus to geopolitical risks, increasing inflation pressure in the US and posing a stagflation risk to the economy, which is unfavorable for the stock market. The US employment market continues to weaken, and the stock market lacks upward momentum and has a correction risk. The domestic stock market fluctuated weakly, and the fundamentals do not support the stock market's continued rise [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market: Most Global Bond Market Yields Declined, and the US Treasury Yield Dropped to 4.4% - Most global bond yields declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping to 4.4%, and most euro - zone countries' bond yields also declining, while emerging - market bond yields mostly rebounded. The US inflation pressure has not yet been reflected, and the Middle East conflict has increased risk - aversion sentiment, causing the US Treasury yield to decline. However, future inflation pressure will still put pressure on the bond market. The domestic bond market fluctuated without a catalyst [14][16][17] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market: The US Dollar Index Fell 1.01%, and Non - US Currencies Mostly Appreciated - The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 98.2, non - US currencies mostly appreciated, the offshore RMB slightly declined, the euro rose 1.32%, the pound rose 0.31%, the yen rose 0.54%, the Swiss franc rose 1.33%, the Canadian dollar, Thai baht, and Brazilian real closed up, while the South African rand, South Korean won, Australian dollar, and Malaysian ringgit closed down [22][24][25] 2.4 Commodity Market: Gold Rose 3.7%, and Brent Crude Oil Rose 10.3% - Spot gold rose 3.7% to $3432 per ounce, and Brent crude oil rose 10.3% to $75.2 per barrel. The Israel - Iran conflict has increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East, boosting risk - aversion sentiment. The Fed is expected to remain on hold next week, and there is no new positive fundamental news. The rise in oil prices will further increase the stagflation risk in the US. Industrial products showed mixed performance, and the commodity spot index closed down [26][28][29] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking: Israel Attacked Iran, and Geopolitical Risks Intensified - The Israel - Iran conflict has escalated, indicating that geopolitical risks have entered a new stage. The focus is now on the US's potential policy orientation. The rapid rise in energy prices will put pressure on global market risk appetite, and in the medium term, the rising stagflation pressure is unfavorable for the US dollar. Asset prices are expected to fluctuate sharply, and safe - haven assets will strengthen [30][33][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - There will be interest - rate meetings of the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England, and data on US retail sales in May will be released [35]