聚酯数据周报-20250615

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost drives the valuation to strengthen. For PX, the cost support is strong, the valuation follows the upward trend, and it is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA. For PTA, the cost support is also strong, the valuation rises, and it is recommended to go long on PTA and short on MEG. For MEG, there is cost support, but the supply is increasing, so it is in a short - term volatile market [3][4]. - In 2025, the polyester production capacity continues to increase by 594 tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 6.8%. The PTA production capacity also has a large - scale addition plan, and the PX production capacity growth rate declines [5][9]. 3. Summary by Section PX - Valuation and Profit - The PX futures forward curve fluctuates sharply, and the valuation rises. The internal - external price difference rises again, and the PXN falls from a high level. The aromatics blending oil economy strengthens, and the chemical profit decreases [18][20][24]. - The Asian octane number recovers, while the US weakens. The Asian gasoline cracking profit is flat and slightly declines, and the naphtha cracking profit falls [33][35]. - Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The domestic PX load this week is 85.8% (-1.2%), and the Asian overall load is 75.6% (+0.5%). The overall supply is expected to increase steadily. The PX apparent consumption in May is 355 tons [55][57][58]. - The PX import volume in April is 72 tons, and it is expected to increase slightly in May. The South Korean aromatics PX production is expected to recover in May. The PX monthly inventory in May drops to 451 tons [61][67][70]. PTA - Valuation and Profit - The TA device load rises, and the credit warrant volume increases at high prices. The near - end valuation follows the rise of oil prices, and the 9 - 1 spread is in a positive spread. The PTA profit remains at a low level [78][80][85]. - Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The PTA operating rate this week rises to 82.6% (+2.9%), and the supply continues to increase. The PTA production in May is 591 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The export in April is 39 tons, and it is expected to be less than 30 tons in May [88][90][96]. - The social inventory is 220 (+4) tons, and the de - stocking slope slows down [112]. MEG - Ethylene Glycol - Valuation and Profit - The unilateral valuation rises, and the spread and basis rise first and then fall. The profits of each link decline month - on - month but remain at a high level, especially the coal - based profit [125][131]. - Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The domestic device operating rate rises to 66% (+6%). The supply increases marginally. The import profit declines month - on - month, which may affect the import in June. The port de - stocking is limited [137][139][144]. Polyester - Valuation and Profit - The polyester chain price stabilizes and rebounds, and the PX - naphtha margin weakens, but there is still a supply - demand gap, so it is expected to be in a high - level volatile market [87]. - Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The polyester operating rate is 90.8% (-0.5%), and it is expected to recover to 91.2% next week. The polyester production increases by 8% year - on - year. The oil price increase stimulates speculative demand, and the polyester inventory decreases rapidly [153][160][162].